Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T06:32:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
64 0x6496…09d0 crypto 420 markets active 2h ago coverage 86d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 86d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,228 (-5%) realized −$5,184 · open −$44
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate45%186W / 229L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$259per market
Trades / day37.2pace
Fees−$875est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$638now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 86d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 45% +$2,574
crypto 36% −$2,293
other 14% +$617
world 3% +$777
politics 1% +$160
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +16.5% +5.4% 43% 43% +21.7%
≤30d 7 +16.5% +5.4% 43% 43% +21.7%
≤90d 415 -5.5% -14.5% 45% 38% -7.9%
all 415 -5.5% -14.5% 45% 38% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.5% 38% -7.9%
10% ← realistic here -22.7% 34% -16.8%
15% -30.2% 30% -24.8%
20% -37.0% 24% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$173 vs −$133 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$638
Realized−$5,184
Unrealized−$44
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses186 / 229
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$875
Open positions2
Markets (closed)415 / 420
History coverage86d ⚠
Avg bet$259
Trades / day37.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 415 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $394 $387 −$7 (-2%)
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 24¢ $288 $251 −$37 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $445 −$43 -10%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $205 +$242 +118%
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $313 −$313 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $255 +$550 +216%
UFC 327: Johnny Walker vs. Dominick Reyes (Light Heavyweight, Main Car Jun 21 $45 −$45 -100%
UFC 327: Paulo Costa vs. Azamat Murzakanov (Light Heavyweight, Main Ca Jun 21 $234 +$214 +91%
UFC 327: Kevin Holland vs. Randy Brown (Welterweight, Prelims) Jun 21 $65 −$65 -100%
UFC 327: Curtis Blaydes vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Apr 12 $122 +$241 +197%
UFC 327: Patricio Pitbull vs. Aaron Pico (Featherweight, Prelims) Apr 12 $136 −$82 -60%
Will Bryson Dechambeau win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 12 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Trump praise Allah again by April 15? Apr 11 $25 +$339 +1329%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 09 $100 −$58 -58%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 09 $67 −$17 -25%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 09 $100 +$69 +69%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 09 $50 +$50 +100%
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 09 $50 −$39 -78%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 09 $273 −$9 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Apr 09 $364 −$195 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Apr 09 $250 −$250 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Apr 09 $230 +$172 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Apr 09 $385 +$90 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 9? Apr 09 $721 +$154 +21%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $202 −$202 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) Apr 09 $514 +$289 +56%
Mavericks vs. Suns Apr 09 $762 −$530 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Apr 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 08 $204 −$14 -7%
Will Trump attend UFC 327? Apr 08 $696 +$79 +11%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $99 +$246 +247%
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? Apr 08 $371 −$91 -25%
Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to Score Apr 08 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5) Apr 08 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Apr 08 $258 −$258 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $2,010 −$2,010 -100%
Rockets vs. Suns Apr 08 $1,388 +$1,182 +85%
Hornets vs. Celtics Apr 08 $904 +$458 +51%
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? Apr 08 $217 −$171 -79%
Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 1.5 Apr 07 $30 −$30 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 07 $226 +$246 +109%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 07 $100 +$25 +24%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 10? Apr 07 $188 +$125 +66%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 07 $210 +$159 +76%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $270 +$238 +88%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 07 $239 +$18 +7%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 07 $186 −$27 -14%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? Apr 07 $30 −$9 -30%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) Apr 07 $111 +$207 +187%
Trump out as President by April 30? Apr 07 $103 −$5 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Apr 07 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Apr 07 $101 −$101 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $402 1h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $402 1h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $445 2h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 38¢ $10 5h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 38¢ $10 5h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 38¢ $5 5h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 38¢ $29 5h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 38¢ $9 5h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 38¢ $2 5h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 38¢ $124 5h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 38¢ $10 5h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 38¢ $246 5h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 38¢ $2 5h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $90 5h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $204 5h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 17¢ $205 5h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 8h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 11¢ $84 8h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 8h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 11¢ $19 8h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 11¢ $19 8h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 11¢ $19 8h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 11¢ $19 8h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 8h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 8h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 8h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 11¢ $19 8h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 11¢ $19 8h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 11¢ $19 8h
Exact Score: Uruguay 0 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 11¢ $19 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $637.50 · official $637.50 (match) · 3500 history records