Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:33:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
64 0x6497…3d3f sports 107 markets active 1h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$109 (-6%) realized −$108 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate47%49W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$49now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$83
7 days−$24
14 days+$27
30 days+$61
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$9
sports 17% +$96
world 13% −$94
finance 5% −$58
crypto 2% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -20.5% -28.1% 38% 38% -13.6%
≤30d 98 +18.4% +7.1% 48% 48% -5.1%
≤90d 101 +16.7% +5.6% 48% 48% -8.1%
all 104 +15.2% +4.2% 47% 46% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.2% 46% -12.2%
10% -5.7% 44% -20.6%
15% -14.8% 41% -28.3%
20% -23.2% 38% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +38% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$14 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$49
Realized−$108
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses49 / 55
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions3
Markets (closed)104 / 107
History coverage108d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 73¢ 74¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 42¢ 40¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $51 +$35 +70%
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 29 $12 +$14 +112%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $20 +$14 +70%
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 28 $5 −$4 -82%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $5 +$15 +291%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $15 +$12 +79%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $5 −$3 -57%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $20 +$14 +70%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $5 +$12 +238%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $30 +$6 +21%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $20 +$19 +93%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $50 +$16 +32%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 24 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$11 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $30 +$16 +52%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 +$27 +134%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $11 −$9 -77%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 22 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $20 +$9 +46%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $20 +$13 +62%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$3 -59%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $121 −$121 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 −$3 -63%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 +$12 +232%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $25 −$20 -80%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $25 +$13 +51%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 +$20 +398%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 +$9 +84%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $25 −$17 -69%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $35 −$10 -30%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $78 +$9 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$21 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $30 +$19 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 73¢ $20 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $86 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 42¢ $20 1h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 57¢ $26 1h
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $12 23h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 23h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 100¢ $34 23h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 23h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 28h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 28h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 46h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 26¢ $6 2d
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 48¢ $15 2d
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $15 2d
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $15 3d
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 94¢ $37 3d
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 77¢ $30 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 34¢ $20 4d
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 4d
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $4 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.27 · official $49.27 (match) · 214 history records