Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:50:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
64 0x6497…2b3f sports 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL −$171 (-27%) realized −$158 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +20% what you keep after slip
Net edge+20%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$107per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$282now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% −$188
sports 31% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+24.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +37.6% +24.5% 75% 75% -56.3%
≤30d 4 +37.6% +24.5% 75% 75% -56.3%
≤90d 4 +37.6% +24.5% 75% 75% -56.3%
all 4 +37.6% +24.5% 75% 75% -56.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +24.5% 75% -56.3%
10% +12.6% 75% -60.5%
15% +1.7% 75% -64.3%
20% -8.3% 50% -67.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -52% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +38% · $-wt -52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$196 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$282
Realized−$158
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)4 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$107
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 33¢ 30¢ $182 $168 −$14 (-8%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $112 $113 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $309 −$196 -64%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $18 +$8 +43%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $9 +$9 +98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $5 +$4 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $186 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $113 4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 26¢ $113 5h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $309 12h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $25 27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $18 30h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $18 30h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 50¢ $9 31h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $9 31h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 57¢ $5 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $281.51 · official $281.51 (match) · 10 history records