Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:04:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
64 0x649f…112d crypto 264 markets active 1h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$6,918 (+10%) realized +$6,383 · open +$535
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate33%84W / 172L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$252per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$201est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$1,224now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$469
7 days+$2,271
14 days+$4,372
30 days+$1,900
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% +$4,621
other 35% +$3,677
crypto 12% −$1,478
economics 1% −$384
world 1% −$93
finance 0% −$16
politics 0% −$36
tech 0% −$30
weather 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-33.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +4.2% -5.7% 40% 40% +61.7%
≤30d 37 -43.2% -48.7% 24% 24% +0.5%
≤90d 240 -25.6% -32.7% 33% 22% -1.6%
all 256 -26.9% -33.8% 33% 22% -1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.8% 22% -1.5%
10% -40.2% 19% -10.9%
15% -45.9% 15% -19.5%
20% -51.2% 13% -27.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -18% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$213 vs −$71 · ×2.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$1,224
Realized+$6,383
Unrealized+$535
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses84 / 172
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$201
Open positions7
Markets (closed)256 / 264
History coverage139d
Avg bet$252
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 256 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 24¢ $500 $721 +$221 (+44%)
Breel Embolo: 2+ goals Yes 12¢ 50¢ $100 $417 +$317 (+317%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Diddy released from custody in 2026? Yes 38¢ 19¢ $8 $4 −$4 (-50%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 6¢ 7¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iqraam Rayners: 1+ goals Jun 18 $205 −$200 -98%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Jun 17 $519 −$269 -52%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $1,062 +$1,066 +100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1,019 +$1,759 +172%
NBA Finals: Wemby to Break Single-Game Finals Blocks Record? Jun 14 $87 −$85 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $853 +$1,241 +146%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $755 +$100 +13%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $783 −$29 -4%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $1,013 −$1,000 -99%
Will Knicks lead the 2026 NBA Finals 4-0 through 4 games? Jun 07 $3 −$3 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $1,008 +$1,792 +178%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $1,008 +$1,792 +178%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? May 31 $1,058 −$1,037 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $1,216 +$966 +79%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-02? May 29 $252 −$252 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 29 $105 −$105 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 29 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
James Comey arrested by April 28? May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Zelenskyy post 140-159 posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Epstein" during WHCA Dinner events? May 29 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? May 29 $71 −$71 -100%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 29 $208 −$208 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 29 $208 −$208 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 29 $103 −$103 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 29 $530 −$530 -100%
Will Al Fayha Saudi Club vs. Al Hilal Saudi Club end in a draw? May 29 $103 −$103 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia, Qualification: Patrick Kypson vs Titouan May 29 $910 −$910 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 29 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Detroit Tigers May 29 $610 −$460 -75%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 29 $1,015 −$1,015 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? May 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $1,010 +$528 +52%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $305 +$335 +110%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1,599 +$1,897 +119%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $931 +$769 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 05 $206 +$129 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 05 $110 +$140 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET May 05 $89 +$133 +150%
76ers vs. Knicks May 05 $988 +$12 +1%
Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees May 05 $508 $0 -0%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $1,020 +$466 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 04 $21 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 04 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 04 $6 +$4 +73%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $1,000 +$606 +61%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $995 +$581 +58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Breel Embolo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 12¢ $103 1h
Iqraam Rayners: 1+ goals BUY Yes 21¢ $205 3h
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $250 23h
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $519 3d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,128 4d
NBA Finals: Wemby to Break Single-Game Finals Blocks Record? BUY Yes 5¢ $87 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $1,019 5d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? A BUY 8¢ $67 6d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $512 7d
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? BUY Yes 4¢ $51 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 40¢ $853 7d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? SELL Yes 87¢ $855 7d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 76¢ $755 8d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $754 8d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $1,013 10d
Will Knicks lead the 2026 NBA Finals 4-0 through 4 games? BUY Yes 29¢ $0 10d
Will Knicks lead the 2026 NBA Finals 4-0 through 4 games? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 10d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $999 10d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $256 10d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $527 10d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $645 11d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $17 11d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $63 11d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 11d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $353 11d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 49¢ $1,015 12d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 46¢ $46 13d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 46¢ $0 13d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $373 14d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $504 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,223.51 · official $1,223.51 (match) · 1042 history records