Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:25:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x64a5…2563 sports 120 markets active 1h ago coverage 60d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$360 (-10%) realized −$402 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +90% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +66% what you keep after slip
Net edge+66%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%61W / 57L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$40est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$10
14 days+$3
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% −$285
other 25% −$118
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+72.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +56.4% +41.5% 100% 100% +42.9%
≤30d 19 +17.1% +6.0% 68% 68% -0.6%
≤90d 118 +90.5% +72.3% 52% 52% -26.3%
all 118 +90.5% +72.3% 52% 52% -26.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +72.3% 52% -26.3%
10% +55.8% 52% -33.3%
15% +40.8% 49% -39.8%
20% +27.0% 44% -45.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +90% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +85% → late +96% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$31 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

60d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$402
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses61 / 57
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions2
Markets (closed)118 / 120
History coverage60d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 118 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Hurricanes 53¢ 88¢ $3 $4 +$2 (+67%)
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-19? Yes 56¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+79%)
Manchester United FC vs. Brentford FC: Both Teams to Score Yes 64¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+56%)
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Yes 53¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+89%)
Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 2.5 Over 53¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+89%)
Coventry City FC vs. Portsmouth FC: O/U 2.5 Over 58¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+72%)
Everton FC vs. Liverpool FC: Both Teams to Score Yes 58¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+72%)
O/U 1.5 Rounds Over 52¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Crystal Palace FC vs. West Ham United FC: Both Teams to Score Yes 57¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $2 +$1 +35%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $2 +$1 +26%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $2 +$1 +60%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $2 +$1 +57%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $3 +$2 +61%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 15.5 Jun 11 $3 +$2 +68%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 10 $3 +$3 +88%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5 Jun 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $3 +$2 +62%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) May 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5) May 24 $2 +$2 +110%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5 May 23 $3 +$2 +56%
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 5.5 May 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-11.5) May 21 $2 +$1 +47%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5 May 20 $2 +$2 +93%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $1 +$2 +163%
Avalanche vs. Wild May 12 $2 +$1 +69%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks: O/U 7.5 May 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Flyers May 08 $4 +$2 +60%
Spread: Chelsea FC (-1.5) May 04 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Los Angeles FC win on 2026-05-02? May 03 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Chicago Fire FC win on 2026-05-02? May 03 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Celtics (-8.5) May 03 $14 +$10 +70%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-05-01? May 02 $51 −$51 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $51 +$34 +66%
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5) May 02 $51 −$51 -100%
Newcastle United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 2.5 May 02 $51 +$35 +69%
Leeds United FC vs. Burnley FC: Both Teams to Score May 02 $103 +$106 +103%
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 30 $51 −$51 -100%
Madrid Open: Marta Kostyuk vs Anastasia Potapova Apr 30 $30 +$10 +33%
Madrid Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Apr 30 $30 +$13 +45%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 30 $51 −$51 -100%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 3.5 Apr 28 $51 +$51 +101%
Manchester United FC vs. Brentford FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 27 $50 +$28 +56%
Lightning vs. Canadiens Apr 27 $12 −$12 -100%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Coventry City FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 26 $50 +$62 +123%
Penguins vs. Flyers Apr 26 $13 −$13 -100%
Lightning vs. Canadiens Apr 25 $6 +$6 +105%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-24? Apr 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Millwall FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Sunderland AFC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 25 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: SSC Napoli (-1.5) Apr 25 $50 +$59 +119%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Ducks vs. Oilers Apr 23 $21 −$21 -100%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Leeds United FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 23 $50 +$34 +67%
Charlton Athletic FC vs. Ipswich Town FC: O/U 2.5 Apr 23 $50 +$47 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 52¢ $2 52m
O/U 2.5 Rounds SELL Under 99¢ $3 52m
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) SELL Bo Nickal 99¢ $3 53m
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Diego Lopes 99¢ $4 1h
O/U 1.5 Rounds SELL Over 99¢ $4 1h
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Under 71¢ $2 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Bo Nickal 76¢ $2 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 60¢ $2 2h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 61¢ $2 2h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 53¢ $3 4h
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes SELL Hurricanes 100¢ $4 2d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 60¢ $3 3d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 15.5 SELL Under 99¢ $5 3d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 15.5 BUY Under 57¢ $3 4d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 52¢ $3 5d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 52¢ $2 8d
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) BUY Spurs 64¢ $3 9d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes SELL Hurricanes 99¢ $6 9d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 59¢ $3 10d
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5 BUY Over 70¢ $4 11d
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) BUY Thunder 61¢ $2 15d
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) BUY Thunder 66¢ $2 17d
Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5) SELL Knicks 100¢ $5 21d
Spread: Cavaliers (-1.5) BUY Knicks 46¢ $2 22d
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 213.5 BUY Over 63¢ $3 23d
Golden Knights vs. Avalanche: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 59¢ $3 23d
Spread: Thunder (-11.5) SELL Spurs 99¢ $3 24d
Spread: Thunder (-11.5) BUY Spurs 65¢ $2 25d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5 SELL Over 100¢ $4 25d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 217.5 BUY Over 50¢ $2 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.90 · official $4.40 · 281 history records