Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:52:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x64a7…e4f5 crypto 606 markets active 3d ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$18 (-1%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate74%446W / 160L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day14.0pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$7
14 days−$1
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$29
other 7% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 103 -5.5% -14.5% 77% 67% -13.1%
≤30d 456 -2.3% -11.6% 75% 63% -11.0%
≤90d 606 -2.1% -11.4% 74% 63% -12.0%
all 606 -2.1% -11.4% 74% 63% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 63% -12.0%
10% -19.9% 42% -20.4%
15% -27.6% 23% -28.1%
20% -34.7% 12% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses446 / 160
Open positions0
Markets (closed)606 / 606
History coverage44d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 606 Trades
no open positions (159 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +33%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +28%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +29%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +23%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +25%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $2 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $2 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $2 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $2 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $2 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $2 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $2 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $2 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $2 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $2 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $2 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $2 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $2 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $2 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $2 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $2 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $2 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $2 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $2 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $2 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $2 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $2 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $2 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $2 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1059 history records