Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:09:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x64a8…7bc3 sports 1034 markets active 0h ago coverage 70d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 69d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$16,269 (-7%) realized −$16,266 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate56%779W / 613L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$227per market
Trades / day46.5pace
Fees−$1,541est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 70d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$6,523
crypto 6% −$302
other 2% −$47
world 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-26.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 383 -92.7% -93.4% 5% 5% -92.3%
≤30d 618 -53.5% -58.0% 31% 27% -59.7%
≤90d 1392 -18.7% -26.5% 56% 44% -32.7%
all 1392 -18.7% -26.5% 56% 44% -32.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.5% 44% -32.7%
10% ← realistic here -33.5% 25% -39.1%
15% -39.9% 13% -45.0%
20% -45.8% 6% -50.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -43% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$196 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$16,266
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses779 / 613
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$1,541
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1392 / 1034
History coverage70d ⚠
Avg bet$227
Trades / day46.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1392 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries Golden State Valkyries 79¢ 98¢ $3 $3 +$1 (+24%)
Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections? Yes 50¢ 18¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-64%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 498 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs BNK FearX Youth (BO3) - LCK Challengers Jun 18 $174 −$173 -100%
Kings vs. Celtics Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: Dark Passage vs Bushido Wildcats (BO5) - TCL Playoffs Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs Oh My God (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qu Jun 18 $358 −$358 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $274 −$274 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Nevada Wolf Pack vs. UNLV Runnin' Rebels Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 18 $79 −$79 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 18 $98 −$98 -100%
Long Beach State Beach vs. Hawaii Rainbow Warriors Jun 18 $17 −$17 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 18 $614 −$614 -100%
Counter-Strike: kONO.ECF vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #16 Group St Jun 18 $93 −$93 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Oh My God - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $200 −$200 -100%
Suns vs. Knicks Jun 18 $200 −$200 -100%
Valorant: MIBR vs NRG - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 18 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: GAM Esports vs Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Jun 18 $855 −$855 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $200 −$200 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $196 −$196 -100%
Southeast Missouri State Redhawks vs. UT Martin Skyhawks Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 18 $298 −$298 -100%
Nets vs. Magic Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ NXT vs ECSTATIC - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $148 −$148 -100%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Heroic - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $160 −$160 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 18 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 18 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 18 $98 −$98 -100%
Will Brisbane Roar FC vs. Wellington Phoenix FC end in a draw? Jun 18 $135 −$135 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $40 −$40 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs BNK FEARX - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $188 −$188 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 18 $98 −$98 -100%
High Point Panthers vs. Wisconsin Badgers Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs DRX Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $99 −$99 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $117 −$117 -100%
Bucks vs. Lakers Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Valorant: Team Envy vs Evil Geniuses - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $600 −$600 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 18 $303 −$303 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 18 $59 −$59 -100%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 18 $197 −$197 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 18 $98 −$98 -100%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $70 −$70 -100%
Kings vs. Pistons Jun 18 $600 −$600 -100%
Suns vs. 76ers Jun 18 $300 −$300 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-03-14? Jun 18 $155 −$155 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire SELL PortlandFire 99¢ $70 0m
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire SELL PortlandFire 75¢ $154 2m
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire SELL PortlandFire 75¢ $4 2m
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire SELL PortlandFire 75¢ $2 3m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners SELL Baltimore Orioles 99¢ $181 8m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners SELL Baltimore Orioles 99¢ $3 8m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners SELL Baltimore Orioles 99¢ $6 8m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners SELL Baltimore Orioles 99¢ $20 8m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners SELL Baltimore Orioles 99¢ $6 9m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners SELL Baltimore Orioles 99¢ $40 9m
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners SELL Baltimore Orioles 99¢ $23 9m
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries SELL Golden State Valkyries 99¢ $248 15m
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 79¢ $201 1h
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire BUY PortlandFire 71¢ $101 1h
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire BUY PortlandFire 70¢ $101 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 69¢ $101 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Baltimore Orioles 73¢ $101 1h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY Team Nemesis 68¢ $128 14h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY Team Nemesis 68¢ $8 14h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY Team Nemesis 74¢ $45 14h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY Team Nemesis 74¢ $97 14h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY Team Nemesis 74¢ $6 14h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 99¢ $247 14h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo SELL T1 Academy 99¢ $248 14h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner SELL Nongshim Esports Academy 99¢ $416 15h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 73¢ $120 15h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 73¢ $4 15h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 73¢ $82 15h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 73¢ $27 15h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 73¢ $73 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.09 · official $5.13 · 3500 history records