Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:03:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
64 0x64a8…7719 crypto 946 markets active 0h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$184 (-2%) realized −$173 · open −$11
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate55%518W / 424L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day27.0pace
Fees−$41est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$206
7 days−$354
14 days−$182
30 days−$210
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 58% −$138
crypto 41% −$140
other 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -32.2% -38.7% 50% 33% -18.7%
≤30d 227 -19.8% -27.4% 44% 35% -12.5%
≤90d 942 -6.6% -15.5% 55% 53% -12.1%
all 942 -6.6% -15.5% 55% 53% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.5% 53% -12.1%
10% ← realistic here -23.6% 51% -20.6%
15% -31.0% 49% -28.2%
20% -37.7% 41% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$97
Realized−$173
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses518 / 424
Est. fees paid−$41
Open positions4
Markets (closed)942 / 946
History coverage56d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day27.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 942 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win? No 64¢ 90¢ $41 $59 +$17 (+42%)
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Scotland England 90¢ 88¢ $30 $30 −$1 (-2%)
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Afghanistan 11¢ $13 $5 −$7 (-58%)
Will England win? Yes 22¢ 10¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-57%)
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria Nigeria 70¢ 71¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 307 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Washington Freedom Jun 20 $110 −$109 -99%
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Namibia vs Hong Kong, China Jun 19 $77 +$10 +14%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Nigeria Jun 19 $181 +$33 +18%
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 19 $698 +$176 +25%
ITF Mohammedia: Daria Egorova vs Diae El Jardi Jun 19 $71 +$44 +62%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Malawi vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Namibia T20 Tri-Series: Nigeria vs Hong Kong, China Jun 18 $9 +$2 +20%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Malawi vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 18 $457 +$7 +2%
ITF Mohammedia: Farhat Aleen Qamar vs Vaidehee Chaudhari Jun 18 $19 +$3 +14%
ITF Ystad: Matylda Burylo vs Valentina Steiner Jun 18 $397 +$38 +10%
ITF Haskovo: Gina Feistel vs Ilinca Dalina Amariei Jun 18 $13 +$3 +24%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Brazil Jun 18 $71 −$5 -7%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Netherlands Jun 17 $131 +$8 +6%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh Jun 17 $282 +$24 +8%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland Jun 16 $123 +$9 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 15 $361 −$361 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $35 +$5 +13%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands Jun 14 $50 +$24 +49%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Polina Kudermetova vs Sinja Jun 14 $79 −$4 -5%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand Jun 14 $154 −$154 -100%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $149 −$98 -65%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa Jun 13 $18 +$7 +38%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $86 +$14 +17%
COD Meknès vs. RCA Zemamra: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $65 +$3 +4%
OC Safi vs. Kawkab AC: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $19 +$1 +5%
ITF Zagreb: Anna-Lena Friedsam vs Gina Marie Dittmann Jun 12 $286 +$46 +16%
ITF Hurghada: Viktoria Morvayova vs Martyna Kubka Jun 12 $4 +$1 +32%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $204 +$87 +43%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 11 $279 +$101 +36%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Zimbabwe High Performance Xi Jun 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Libema Open: Otto Virtanen vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 11 $66 −$47 -71%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Malawi Jun 11 $224 +$6 +3%
Tucuman: Thiago Cigarran vs Valerio Aboian Jun 11 $21 −$1 -3%
ITF Guimaraes: Savannah Broadus vs Carmen Lopez Martinez Jun 10 $62 +$9 +14%
ITF Guimaraes: Belle Thompson vs Angelina Voloshchuk Jun 10 $155 +$25 +16%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Nigeria vs Malawi Jun 10 $18 +$2 +12%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Indonesia vs Oman Jun 10 $57 +$6 +10%
ITF Hurghada: Elizaveta Gurianova vs Martyna Kubka Jun 10 $59 +$3 +5%
ITF Hurghada: Aliesia Reva vs Ashleigh Harvey Jun 10 $7 $0 -3%
Lithuania vs. Liechtenstein: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $94 −$94 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $11 +$2 +20%
England vs. Ukraine: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $17 +$2 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Brazil vs Nigeria BUY Nigeria 70¢ $0 15m
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY Afghanistan 10¢ $8 2h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY Afghanistan 12¢ $5 3h
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Washington Freedom BUY Washington Freedom 57¢ $1 5h
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Washington Freedom BUY Washington Freedom 62¢ $1 5h
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Washington Freedom BUY Washington Freedom 68¢ $3 5h
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Washington Freedom BUY Washington Freedom 69¢ $7 5h
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Washington Freedom BUY Washington Freedom 70¢ $17 5h
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Washington Freedom BUY Washington Freedom 75¢ $18 6h
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Washington Freedom BUY Washington Freedom 74¢ $19 6h
Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Washington Freedom BUY Washington Freedom 74¢ $42 6h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Scotland BUY England 90¢ $31 17h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Nigeria BUY Rwanda 91¢ $18 18h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Nigeria BUY Rwanda 88¢ $70 18h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Nigeria BUY Rwanda 87¢ $7 18h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Nigeria BUY Rwanda 83¢ $4 18h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Nigeria BUY Rwanda 75¢ $6 18h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Nigeria BUY Rwanda 64¢ $4 18h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Nigeria BUY Rwanda 63¢ $4 18h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Nigeria BUY Rwanda 64¢ $10 18h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Nigeria BUY Rwanda 55¢ $7 18h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Nigeria BUY Nigeria 50¢ $2 18h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Nigeria BUY Nigeria 50¢ $2 18h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Nigeria BUY Rwanda 45¢ $5 18h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Nigeria BUY Nigeria 50¢ $1 18h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Nigeria BUY Rwanda 45¢ $5 18h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Nigeria BUY Nigeria 50¢ $2 18h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Nigeria BUY Rwanda 44¢ $10 18h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Nigeria BUY Nigeria 59¢ $13 18h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Nigeria BUY Rwanda 40¢ $3 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.65 · official $96.46 (match) · 2060 history records