Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T06:23:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x64aa…ff9a sports 79 markets active 1h ago coverage 565d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate54%42W / 36L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$196per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$7
other 29% −$4
sports 26% +$10
crypto 1% +$1
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 3 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 78 +1.9% -7.8% 54% 3% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 3% -9.5%
10% -16.6% 3% -18.2%
15% -24.7% 1% -26.1%
20% -32.0% 1% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

565d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses42 / 36
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)78 / 79
History coverage565d
Avg bet$196
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum all time high by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $164 in May? Jun 07 $36 $0 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $220 end of April? May 03 $43 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $220 end of March? Apr 10 $41 $0 +0%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $260 end of January? Feb 05 $11 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in January? Feb 05 $34 $0 +0%
Will Airbnb reach $158 in November? Dec 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $280 end of November? Dec 03 $45 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2600 in October? Nov 04 $18 +$1 +4%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 29 $2,247 −$2 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 29 $2,308 −$2 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 28 $2,119 −$2 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 28 $2,224 −$2 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 28 $2,116 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $6200 in August? Sep 20 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? Aug 07 $3 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $220 in June? Jul 06 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in May? Jun 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $12 before June? Jun 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in April? May 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $79000 and $81000 on Apr 25? May 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50k in April? May 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78000 and $80000 on Apr 18? Apr 19 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $2 $0 +1%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in March? Apr 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $87000 and $89000 on Mar 14? Mar 17 $2 $0 +0%
Solana above $175 on February 28? Mar 05 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bybit hacker return stolen ETH by next Friday? Mar 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2025 NBA Finals? Feb 26 $938 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2025 NBA Finals? Feb 26 $946 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2025 NBA Finals? Feb 26 $937 −$1 -0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2025 NBA Finals? Feb 26 $946 −$1 -0%
Solana above $200 on February 21? Feb 23 $1 $0 +1%
Solana above $240 on February 7? Feb 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 by January 31? Feb 03 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $4,500 by January 31, 2025? Feb 03 $3 $0 +0%
Ripple above $2.40 on January 17? Jan 21 $1 $0 +1%
Will Biden resign before inauguration? Jan 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will Palisades wildfire spread to Malibu by Sunday? Jan 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked' gross more than $500 million domestically by January 9? Jan 11 $1 $0 +0%
Ethereum above $3,500 on January 10? Jan 11 $1 $0 +0%
Fact Check: Connection between New Orleans and Las Vegas attacks? Jan 11 $1 $0 +0%
Cybertruck explosion perp arrested by Sunday? Jan 06 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above $94,000 on January 3? Jan 04 $2 $0 +1%
Red Wings vs. Sabres Dec 11 $16 +$4 +24%
Jazz vs. Trail Blazers Dec 11 $8 +$10 +127%
Kings vs. Devils Dec 11 $34 $0 -0%
Blackhawks vs. Islanders Dec 11 $2 $0 -3%
Capitals vs. Blue Jackets Dec 11 $14 $0 -0%
Ducks vs. Senators Dec 11 $8 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum all time high by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $41 1h
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $164 in May? BUY No 100¢ $36 31d
Will Netflix (NFLX) close above $220 end of April? BUY No 100¢ $43 63d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $220 end of March? BUY No 100¢ $41 92d
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $260 end of January? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 150d
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in January? BUY No 100¢ $34 150d
Will Airbnb reach $158 in November? BUY No 100¢ $2 207d
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $280 end of November? BUY Yes 100¢ $45 208d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $2,245 238d
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $2,247 238d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $2,305 238d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $2,308 238d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $2,116 238d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $2,119 238d
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 100¢ $2,222 238d
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2,224 238d
Will the Miami Dolphins win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 100¢ $2,114 238d
Will the Miami Dolphins win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2,116 238d
Will Ethereum dip to $2600 in October? BUY No 96¢ $18 250d
Will Ethereum reach $6200 in August? BUY No 100¢ $3 300d
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? BUY No 99¢ $3 333d
Will Solana reach $220 in June? BUY No 100¢ $1 364d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $12 before June? BUY No 100¢ $2 393d
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in May? BUY No 100¢ $1 395d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50k in April? BUY No 100¢ $2 424d
Will XRP reach $3.50 in April? BUY No 100¢ $2 425d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $79000 and $81000 on Apr 25? BUY No 100¢ $2 425d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78000 and $80000 on Apr 18? BUY No 100¢ $2 432d
Bitcoin all time high by March 31? BUY No 99¢ $2 456d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in March? BUY No 100¢ $3 457d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.31 · official $41.31 (match) · 221 history records