Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:33:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x64ad…b31c other 87 markets active 5h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$563 (-21%) realized −$556 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate25%21W / 62L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day30.9pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$458
14 days−$596
30 days−$596
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$564
other 30% +$368
crypto 9% −$235
world 4% −$82
politics 3% −$90
tech 0% +$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-29.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 77 -16.9% -24.8% 27% 25% -26.5%
≤30d 83 -21.8% -29.2% 25% 23% -30.4%
≤90d 83 -21.8% -29.2% 25% 23% -30.4%
all 83 -21.8% -29.2% 25% 23% -30.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -29.2% 23% -30.4%
10% ← realistic here -36.0% 19% -37.0%
15% -42.2% 18% -43.1%
20% -47.8% 12% -48.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$24 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized−$556
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses21 / 62
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions2
Markets (closed)83 / 87
History coverage8d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day30.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $15 $10 −$5 (-32%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $11 $9 −$2 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 17 $2 $0 -5%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $2 $0 -1%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 $0 -8%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $16 $0 -3%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6 +$2 +36%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 17 $3 $0 -12%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $9 +$3 +30%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $2 $0 +12%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 17 $3 +$4 +117%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $4 $0 -7%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4 $0 -6%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $6 −$1 -10%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 $0 -5%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 $0 -5%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $2 +$2 +103%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $5 −$3 -67%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 −$2 -37%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 16 $3 −$1 -17%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: France 3 - 3 Senegal? Jun 16 $8 −$7 -90%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $8 +$4 +48%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 $0 -42%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$2 -35%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 +$10 +234%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 $0 -21%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $17 +$33 +190%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $397 −$355 -89%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $367 +$31 +8%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $22 −$11 -49%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $22 −$20 -88%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$8 -82%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $19 −$19 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $30 −$25 -84%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $6 −$5 -88%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$18 -89%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $19 +$11 +57%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 14 $90 −$90 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $29 −$29 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $3 +$1 +36%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $4 −$4 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $2 +$2 +103%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $7 −$5 -66%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $61 −$61 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $373 −$318 -85%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $2 4h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 5.5 Corners SELL Over 48¢ $2 4h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $2 5h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 48¢ $2 5h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $3 5h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $3 5h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $1 5h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $1 5h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 5h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $2 5h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $5 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 76¢ $8 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $8 16h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 16h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 19h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL Yes 3¢ $2 19h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 15¢ $6 19h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 20h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 98¢ $11 20h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 20h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL Yes 3¢ $1 20h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $3 20h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 3¢ $3 20h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 20h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 20h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $7 20h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 0¢ $5 21h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 22h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $3 22h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $4 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.92 · official $18.93 (match) · 258 history records