Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:16:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x64ad…f5b7 other 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 16d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$57 (-30%) realized −$17 · open −$40
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate55%6W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$4
14 days−$6
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% −$70
tech 11% +$2
sports 11% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-24.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +11.9% +1.2% 67% 67% +1.5%
≤30d 11 -17.0% -24.9% 55% 45% -35.1%
≤90d 11 -17.0% -24.9% 55% 45% -35.1%
all 11 -17.0% -24.9% 55% 45% -35.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.9% 45% -35.1%
10% -32.1% 18% -41.3%
15% -38.7% 9% -47.0%
20% -44.7% 0% -52.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 54% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$10 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized−$17
Unrealized−$40
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses6 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)11 / 14
History coverage16d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 54¢ 22¢ $35 $15 −$20 (-58%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $24 $6 −$18 (-75%)
Will Paraguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 31¢ 16¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-47%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $11 +$2 +21%
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $10 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 27 $10 +$1 +15%
Will Jude Bellingham be in England's Starting 11? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +15%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $10 +$2 +24%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 12 $10 $0 +2%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +42%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $8 $0 -5%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $25 −$24 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $35 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $13 2h
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 75¢ $10 2h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $12 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 82¢ $11 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $13 12d
Will Jude Bellingham be in England's Starting 11? BUY Yes 87¢ $10 15d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 15d
Will Paraguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 15d
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 74¢ $10 15d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $10 15d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 15d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $10 15d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 15d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 16d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 49¢ $8 16d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 23¢ $17 16d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $8 16d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $25 16d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 23¢ $8 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.74 · official $20.45 · 37 history records