Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:27:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x64ad…8506 crypto 108 markets active 1h ago coverage 23d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$82 (-2%) realized −$82 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate49%53W / 55L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day9.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$70
7 days+$18
14 days−$56
30 days−$202
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$199
weather 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +0.5% -9.0% 61% 57% -6.8%
≤30d 108 -3.3% -12.5% 49% 42% -14.1%
≤90d 108 -3.3% -12.5% 49% 42% -14.1%
all 108 -3.3% -12.5% 49% 42% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 42% -14.1%
10% -20.9% 36% -22.3%
15% -28.5% 29% -29.8%
20% -35.5% 24% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$21 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$82
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses53 / 55
Open positions0
Markets (closed)108 / 108
History coverage23d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day9.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 108 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 21 $61 +$19 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 21 $63 −$2 -3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 21 $54 +$9 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 21 $32 +$22 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 21 $37 −$5 -14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 21 $19 +$19 +99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$8 +79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $20 +$8 +39%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$5 -35%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $40 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 17 $12 +$4 +34%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $18 +$3 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$3 -14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 17 $18 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $23 +$7 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $34 −$33 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$8 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$6 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$11 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $20 −$10 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $18 −$8 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 13 $12 +$6 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 13 $6 +$6 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$4 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 12 $12 −$9 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$4 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$5 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 11 $14 −$14 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 11 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 11 $11 +$10 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 07 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 07 $49 −$21 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 07 $18 +$9 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 07 $15 +$6 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 07 $4 +$10 +243%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 07 $2 +$2 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 07 $21 −$7 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 07 $22 −$12 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 06 $22 −$21 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 06 $4 −$4 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 06 $18 −$14 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 06 $20 −$2 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $61 30m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $61 33m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $63 33m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $54 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $32 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $32 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $37 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $19 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $18 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $9 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $9 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET SELL Down 22¢ $10 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $16 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $15 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $11 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $7 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $4 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $13 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $14 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $16 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $16 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $12 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $20 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $20 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $18 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 31¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $18 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $21 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 285 history records