Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:12:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
64 0x64af…281f crypto 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$11 (+4%) realized +$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate58%7W / 5L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day9.3pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$221
other 3% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +13.9% +3.1% 58% 50% +59.3%
≤30d 12 +13.9% +3.1% 58% 50% +59.3%
≤90d 12 +13.9% +3.1% 58% 50% +59.3%
all 12 +13.9% +3.1% 58% 50% +59.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.1% 50% +59.3%
10% -6.8% 50% +44.1%
15% -15.8% 33% +30.1%
20% -24.0% 8% +17.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 82% · top 2 87% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +76% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +76% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$14 · ×2.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.01 per $1 lost it wins $4.01
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses7 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage2d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 27 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 27 $52 +$231 +441%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$11 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$4 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 27 $52 −$25 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$11 +44%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 27 $25 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$12 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 26 history records