Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:31:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x64b1…6c71 other 160 markets active 2h ago coverage 164d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$36 (-0%) realized −$36 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate14%23W / 137L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$152per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 27% −$12
other 27% −$15
politics 24% −$9
crypto 6% −$1
economics 5% −$2
culture 4% −$2
world 3% +$1
finance 2% +$5
tech 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.8% -10.3% 0% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 3 -0.6% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 62 -0.3% -9.8% 15% 0% -9.7%
all 160 -0.2% -9.7% 14% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

164d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses23 / 137
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)160 / 160
History coverage164d
Avg bet$152
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 160 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $115 −$1 -1%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $57 $0 -1%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $126 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 15 $45 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 21 $46 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 21 $286 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $829 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $84 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Apr 20 $47 $0 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Apr 20 $64 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 19 $58 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $48 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 19 $87 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 19 $63 $0 +0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $428 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 18 $100 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? Apr 18 $58 $0 -1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $388 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $132 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $349 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $450 −$1 -0%
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-2.5) Apr 15 $53 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $397 $0 +0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 15 $52 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $531 −$2 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $99 $0 -0%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 13 $212 $0 +0%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $47 $0 +0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 12 $40 $0 -0%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 12 $146 −$1 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 12 $595 −$1 -0%
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 12 $54 −$1 -3%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 11 $123 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 11 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 11 $46 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 11 $58 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 10 $51 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $5,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 10 $221 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 09 $203 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 09 $275 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 09 $211 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 08 $416 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 08 $202 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 08 $52 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 07 $210 $0 +0%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? Apr 05 $209 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 02 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 01 $60 −$1 -2%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Mar 31 $358 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 31 $375 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 91¢ $60 1h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 91¢ $61 9h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $57 8d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $57 8d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $64 22d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $64 23d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 98¢ $45 37d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $45 37d
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $46 61d
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $46 61d
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $54 61d
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $25 61d
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $2 62d
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $27 62d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $56 62d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $57 62d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $48 62d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $49 62d
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $47 62d
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $47 62d
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 96¢ $64 62d
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $64 63d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $57 63d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $58 63d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $47 63d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $48 63d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $49 63d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $49 63d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 95¢ $63 63d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 95¢ $63 64d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 687 history records