Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:08:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x64b2…55de world 91 markets active 0h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$205 (+14%) realized +$77 · open +$128
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate47%28W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day36.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$322now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days−$17
14 days+$47
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% +$143
weather 24% −$2
other 12% +$9
crypto 7% −$4
politics 4% −$5
sports 3% −$7
economics 1% +$3
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -24.8% -31.9% 38% 23% -14.7%
≤30d 42 -5.8% -14.8% 43% 19% -5.2%
≤90d 60 -4.0% -13.2% 47% 18% -8.5%
all 60 -4.0% -13.2% 47% 18% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.2% 18% -8.5%
10% ← realistic here -21.5% 13% -17.3%
15% -29.1% 10% -25.3%
20% -36.0% 10% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 76% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
9.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$6 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$322
Realized+$77
Unrealized+$128
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses28 / 32
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions31
Markets (closed)60 / 91
History coverage42d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day36.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 31 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 18¢ 85¢ $32 $156 +$124 (+382%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 76¢ 94¢ $43 $53 +$10 (+22%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $35 $36 +$1 (+2%)
Will GameStop acquire eBay? No 84¢ 84¢ $13 $13 +$0 (+1%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 80¢ 88¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+11%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No 76¢ 86¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+14%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? Yes 18¢ 34¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+90%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 95¢ 99¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+4%)
Hantavirus vaccine in 2026? No 88¢ 94¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+7%)
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? No 89¢ 88¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? Yes 49¢ 51¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+3%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? No 93¢ 98¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 33¢ 72¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+116%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? Yes $3 $2 −$1 (-32%)
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? No 72¢ 66¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-10%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No 87¢ 92¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? No 90¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? No 96¢ 28¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-70%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Yes $3 $1 −$2 (-60%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Yes 75¢ 83¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No 94¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 96¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $33 +$56 +169%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $30 −$26 -85%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -95%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +52%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $6 $0 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $87 −$32 -36%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Jun 11 $97 $0 -0%
Will Spencer Pratt finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 09 $10 +$2 +21%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $2 −$2 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $6 −$6 -93%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $8 −$5 -61%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $4 $0 +0%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $78 +$86 +110%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 07 $1 $0 +34%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 04 $2 +$1 +35%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $102 −$4 -4%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $4 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $22 −$17 -78%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $1 $0 +1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? Jun 01 $1 $0 +3%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 01 $1 $0 +1%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? Jun 01 $20 +$1 +7%
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31? Jun 01 $12 +$2 +14%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $3 −$2 -59%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $2 −$2 -76%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma Jun 01 $1 −$1 -67%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $7 $0 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 29 $1 $0 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $25 −$11 -44%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during events in Rockland County? May 27 $9 −$9 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? May 26 $1 $0 +1%
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season? May 25 $42 −$9 -21%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 25 $5 $0 +8%
Trump kiss by May 31? May 23 $4 −$2 -50%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 23 $2 +$20 +818%
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-M May 21 $1 −$1 -56%
Epstein suicide note released by May 31? May 20 $1 $0 -0%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" during events with Xi Jinping? May 19 $1 $0 -40%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $15 −$11 -72%
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? May 16 $1 $0 +3%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026? May 16 $4 +$2 +52%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026? May 16 $17 $0 +3%
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15? May 15 $1 +$2 +194%
Epstein suicide note released by May 8? May 15 $55 +$9 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 12 $1 −$1 -56%
Will Los Angeles Clippers receive the fifth overall pick at the 2026 N May 10 $1 $0 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 8, 2026? May 09 $8 −$1 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 46¢ $1 8m
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 47¢ $1 8m
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 48¢ $1 8m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $2 13m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 95¢ $3 2h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 85¢ $3 2h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 87¢ $0 3h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 84¢ $2 3h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 84¢ $1 3h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 86¢ $1 3h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 66¢ $0 3h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 69¢ $1 3h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY Yes 75¢ $1 3h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 85¢ $2 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $1 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $1 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $1 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $1 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $1 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $322.48 · official $320.62 (match) · 1573 history records