trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | -59.1% | -63.0% | 0% | 0% | -63.0% |
| ≤30d | 7 | -0.1% | -9.6% | 43% | 43% | -0.0% |
| ≤90d | 13 | -6.4% | -15.4% | 31% | 31% | -0.2% |
| all | 15 | -8.9% | -17.6% | 33% | 27% | -2.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -17.6% | 27% | -2.8% |
| 10% | -25.4% | 20% | -12.1% |
| 15% | -32.6% | 20% | -20.6% |
| 20% | -39.3% | 7% | -28.4% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? | No | 78¢ | 75¢ | $157 | $151 | −$7 (-4%) |
| Will there be exactly 2 ChatGPT outages in June 2026? | No | 92¢ | 100¢ | $108 | $118 | +$10 (+9%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Another critical Cloudflare incident by July 31, 2026? | Jun 13 | $162 | −$96 | -59% |
| Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? | Jun 09 | $713 | −$17 | -2% |
| Another critical Cloudflare incident by September 30, 2026? | Jun 08 | $111 | +$45 | +40% |
| Will there be fewer than 2 ChatGPT outages in May 2026? | Jun 01 | $479 | +$461 | +96% |
| Will Claude go down 12+ times in May? | Jun 01 | $247 | +$41 | +17% |
| Will Claude go down 9-11 times in May? | May 30 | $251 | −$213 | -85% |
| Will there be exactly 2 ChatGPT outages in May 2026? | May 26 | $79 | −$6 | -8% |
| Will Claude go down 3-5 times in May? | May 14 | $334 | −$20 | -6% |
| ChatGPT Outage by May 1? | Apr 29 | $160 | −$21 | -13% |
| ChatGPT Outage by May 1? | Apr 22 | $1 | $0 | -48% |
| ChatGPT Outage by April 17? | Apr 10 | $7 | $0 | -3% |
| ChatGPT Outage by April 10? | Apr 08 | $1 | −$1 | -60% |
| ChatGPT Outage by April 3? | Apr 05 | $244 | +$115 | +47% |
| Critical Discord Incident by March 31, 2026? | Mar 13 | $125 | −$70 | -56% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET | Mar 08 | $1 | $0 | +7% |