Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:30:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

64 0x64c0…cda0 sports 5 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$309 (-60%) realized −$409 · open +$100

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -84% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -85% what you keep after slip

Net edge-85%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 3L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$103per market

Trades / day3.0pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit80%portable

Net worth$450now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-85.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	-83.5%	-85.1%	0%	0%	-87.9%
≤30d	3	-83.5%	-85.1%	0%	0%	-87.9%
≤90d	3	-83.5%	-85.1%	0%	0%	-87.9%
all	3	-83.5%	-85.1%	0%	0%	-87.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.0 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-85.1%	0%	-87.9%
10%	-86.5%	0%	-89.1%
15%	-87.8%	0%	-90.2%
20%	-89.0%	0%	-91.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -87% too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -84% · $-wt -87% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

— vs −$37 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$450

Realized−$409

Unrealized+$100

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 3

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 5

History coverage4d

Avg bet$103

Trades / day3.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?	No	0¢	0¢	$350	$450	+$100 (+29%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Jun 14	$11	−$11	-100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$106	−$93	-88%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score	Jun 13	$12	−$7	-63%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?	BUY No	0¢	$250	2h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?	BUY No	0¢	$50	15h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score AND Argentina vs. Algeria:	BUY	27¢	$35	15h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?	BUY No	0¢	$50	15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	BUY Down	42¢	$6	3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	BUY Down	49¢	$5	3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	SELL Yes	7¢	$13	3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	26¢	$4	3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score	SELL No	21¢	$4	3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score	BUY No	54¢	$12	3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	59¢	$101	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $450.00 · official $450.00 (match) · 12 history records