Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:43:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x64c1…0829 world 39 markets active 3h ago coverage 464d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-1%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate39%15W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 66% +$1
other 22% −$1
crypto 4% $0
economics 4% $0
politics 3% −$3
sports 2% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.7% -8.9% 33% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 17 -0.3% -9.8% 18% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 17 -0.3% -9.8% 18% 0% -9.7%
all 38 -3.2% -12.5% 39% 0% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 0% -10.0%
10% -20.8% 0% -18.6%
15% -28.5% 0% -26.5%
20% -35.5% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

464d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses15 / 23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage464d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 83¢ 82¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 21 $38 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $17 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 19 $17 +$1 +4%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $37 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $28 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $93 +$1 +1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $28 $0 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $27 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $18 $0 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 01 $23 $0 -2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 31 $30 −$2 -6%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $1 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $33 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $32 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 28 $10 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 28 $32 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 13 $1 $0 +1%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president before July? Jun 26 $9 $0 +4%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? May 19 $2 $0 -18%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship May 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 300–324 times May 9–16? May 17 $1 $0 -31%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? May 17 $1 $0 +4%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? May 16 $6 $0 +0%
Will Israel qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 16 $10 $0 +3%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? May 16 $6 $0 +0%
Will Mercedes be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will Justin Trudeau be named in Epstein files? May 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will Pierbattista Pizzaballa be the next pope? May 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will Jerome Powell say "good afternoon" during the May meeting? May 08 $10 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $101000 and $103000 on May 9? May 07 $9 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? May 07 $6 −$3 -55%
Will the Los Angeles Kings win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 06 $13 +$1 +4%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? Mar 27 $14 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 22 $14 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting? Mar 17 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his DOJ appearance on Frid Mar 15 $12 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 45°F or below on March 15? Mar 15 $1 $0 -37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 83¢ $28 2h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $31 6h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $31 6h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $12 13h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $12 14h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 21h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 23h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 36h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $8 36h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 25¢ $8 36h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 24¢ $12 37h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 37h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 8¢ $1 42h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 8¢ $5 42h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 11¢ $4 43h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 11¢ $5 43h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 89¢ $10 45h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 89¢ $20 45h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 82¢ $28 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $6 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $28 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $28 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $0 16d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $28 18d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $28 18d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $27 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.05 · official $28.05 (match) · 127 history records