Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T20:40:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

64
0x64c3…75ab
sports · 246 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$407 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$494 · open −$211
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,181
Realized−$494
Unrealized−$211
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses108 / 116
Est. fees paid−$71
Open positions21
Markets (closed)224 / 246
History coverage98d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%
Chart Positions 21 History 224 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$162
7 days+$27
14 days−$142
30 days−$730
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $510 $439 −$71 (-14%)
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? No 64¢ 62¢ $150 $145 −$5 (-3%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $85 $114 +$29 (+34%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $90 $91 +$1 (+2%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $60 $57 −$3 (-6%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 46¢ 44¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-5%)
Will Alcaraz or Sinner win more Grand Slams in 2026? Sinner 62¢ 45¢ $65 $47 −$18 (-28%)
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 40¢ 28¢ $50 $35 −$15 (-30%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+8%)
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 39¢ 34¢ $33 $28 −$5 (-14%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 20¢ 12¢ $45 $26 −$19 (-43%)
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+16%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 47¢ 27¢ $30 $17 −$13 (-44%)
Will anyone be charged over Epstein disclosures? Yes 20¢ 11¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-45%)
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 27¢ 12¢ $12 $5 −$7 (-55%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $12 $5 −$7 (-57%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 7¢ 1¢ $30 $3 −$27 (-89%)
Will Luis Diaz win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-71%)
Will Declan Rice win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 11¢ 4¢ $6 $2 −$4 (-62%)
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $39 $0 −$39 (-100%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $61 +$67 +109%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 13 $45 −$45 -100%
Set Handicap: Blanch (-1.5) vs Sanchis (+1.5) Jun 13 $31 −$31 -100%
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Bellucci (+1.5) Jun 13 $46 −$46 -100%
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Landaluce (+1.5) Jun 13 $92 −$92 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Nick Kyrgios vs Corentin Moutet Jun 09 $28 +$34 +125%
Will Petro mention Hitler again by June 30? Jun 09 $31 +$78 +249%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $172 +$76 +44%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $512 +$7 +1%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $310 +$53 +17%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Mensik (+1.5) Jun 05 $101 +$60 +60%
Will Sergio Fajardo place 3rd in the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian p Jun 05 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 05 $51 −$51 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $49 +$69 +140%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 03 $152 −$152 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $14 −$14 -100%
Rafael Jodar vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 02 $61 −$61 -100%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $87 $0 +0%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 02 $45 +$17 +38%
Epstein suicide note released by May 31? Jun 01 $21 −$21 -100%
Jimmy Kimmel fired/resigns by May 31? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev Jun 01 $56 −$56 -100%
Will voter turnout be 57-60% in the first round of the 2026 Colombian May 31 $8 +$13 +169%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $20 −$20 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 31 $404 −$193 -48%
Roland Garros ATP: Moise Kouame vs Alejandro Tabilo May 30 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid May 30 $102 +$24 +23%
Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs. Martin Landaluce: Total Sets O/U 3.5 May 30 $20 +$10 +49%
Set Handicap: Tabilo (-2.5) vs Kouame (+2.5) May 30 $10 +$7 +68%
Hamburg European Open: Tommy Paul vs Daniel Altmaier May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-20? May 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? May 30 $3 −$3 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Ignacio Buse vs Andrey Rublev May 30 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "Venezuela" at The Villages on May 1? May 30 $4 −$4 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Frances Tiafoe vs Ignacio Buse May 30 $9 −$9 -100%
Spread: Real Madrid CF (-1.5) May 30 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Nice win on 2026-05-26? May 30 $7 −$7 -100%
Set Handicap: Vallejo (-1.5) vs Faria (+1.5) May 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Daniil Medvedev May 30 $14 −$14 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Mariano Navone vs Jakub Mensik May 30 $11 −$11 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Score May 30 $12 −$12 -100%
Set Handicap: Prado (-1.5) vs Wong (+1.5) May 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Cobolli (+1.5) May 30 $15 −$15 -100%
Will TheUnitedStrand get a haircut by 2025-26 season end? May 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Marin Cilic vs Martin Landaluce May 30 $20 −$20 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Damir Dzumhur vs Adrian Mannarino May 30 $9 −$9 -100%
Set Handicap: Comesana (-1.5) vs Riedi (+1.5) May 30 $15 −$15 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Learner Tien vs Alexander Bublik May 30 $25 −$25 -100%
Set Handicap: Kjaer (-1.5) vs Virtanen (+1.5) May 30 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 58% −$567
other 26% −$133
politics 13% −$49
world 2% +$51
crypto 1% −$3
culture 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $51 1h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 AND Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY 11¢ $6 20h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 19¢ $15 21h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $128 21h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $62 25h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $62 25h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $61 26h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $31 42h
Will Neymar score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 39¢ $34 45h
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Bellucci (+1.5) BUY Fritz 51¢ $46 2d
Set Handicap: Blanch (-1.5) vs Sanchis (+1.5) BUY Blanch 40¢ $31 2d
Set Handicap: Fritz (-1.5) vs Landaluce (+1.5) BUY Fritz 44¢ $92 3d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $93 3d
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios BUY Nick Kyrgios 64¢ $45 4d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 7¢ $31 4d
Stuttgart Open: Nick Kyrgios vs Corentin Moutet SELL Nick Kyrgios 83¢ $62 5d
Stuttgart Open: Nick Kyrgios vs Corentin Moutet BUY Nick Kyrgios 36¢ $28 5d
Will Petro mention Hitler again by June 30? SELL Yes 99¢ $109 5d
Will Petro mention Hitler again by June 30? BUY Yes 27¢ $31 5d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 86¢ $183 6d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes 85¢ $473 7d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev SELL Alexander Zverev 90¢ $363 7d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 76¢ $310 7d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 90¢ $502 7d
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Mensik (+1.5) SELL Zverev 100¢ $161 9d
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Mensik (+1.5) BUY Zverev 62¢ $101 9d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 37¢ $27 9d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 56¢ $122 9d
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi SELL Matteo Arnaldi 67¢ $118 11d
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi BUY Matteo Arnaldi 27¢ $49 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +3.1% -6.7% 44% 44% -4.9%
≤30d 88 -34.3% -40.6% 34% 31% -24.3%
≤90d 217 -7.7% -16.5% 47% 44% -16.0%
all 224 -4.0% -13.1% 48% 46% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 46% -15.5%
10% -21.4% 43% -23.6%
15% -29.0% 41% -31.0%
20% -36.0% 33% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,180.58 · official $1,181.47 (match) · 579 history records