Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:38:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
64 0x64c3…c7ab crypto 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%25W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$4
other 3% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 12 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 25 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 25 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 0% -9.3%
10% -17.8% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.7% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.0% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses25 / 0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage52d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 82¢ 94¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $80 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $90 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $90 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $90 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $90 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 28? May 28 $90 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25? May 25 $90 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 24? May 24 $90 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 22? May 22 $89 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 21? May 21 $89 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19? May 19 $89 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? May 18 $89 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 15? May 15 $88 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 14? May 14 $88 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 13? May 13 $88 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 12? May 12 $88 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 11? May 11 $88 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 10? May 10 $82 $0 +0%
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $5 $0 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 4? May 04 $87 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 30? Apr 30 $46 $0 +0%
Will MegaETH launch a token by May 31, 2026? Apr 30 $41 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 29? Apr 29 $46 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 27? Apr 27 $46 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $110 on April 26? Apr 27 $46 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $80 1h
o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 82¢ $8 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $90 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $90 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $90 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $90 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $90 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 25? BUY No 100¢ $90 23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 24? BUY No 100¢ $90 24d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $89 26d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 21? BUY No 100¢ $89 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 19? BUY No 100¢ $89 29d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? BUY No 100¢ $89 30d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 15? BUY No 100¢ $88 33d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 14? BUY No 100¢ $88 34d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $88 35d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 12? BUY No 100¢ $88 36d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 11? BUY No 100¢ $88 37d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 10? SELL No 100¢ $82 38d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 10? BUY No 100¢ $82 39d
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-05-09? BUY Yes 93¢ $5 39d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $87 44d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $46 48d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $46 50d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $46 51d
Will MegaETH launch a token by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $41 52d
Will Solana reach $110 on April 26? BUY No 100¢ $46 52d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.35 · official $9.40 (match) · 51 history records