Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:23:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x64c5…d255 sports 286 markets active 1h ago coverage 27d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 26d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (118 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$12,288 (+0%) realized +$24,389 · open −$12,101
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate96%275W / 10L
Whale WR92%big bets
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$9,305per market
Trades / day117.7pace
Fees−$256est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$26,471now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 27d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 74% +$8,826
politics 24% −$12,101
other 2% +$230
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (118 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 +0.3% -9.2% 97% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 285 -0.3% -9.8% 96% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 285 -0.3% -9.8% 96% 0% -9.2%
all 285 -0.3% -9.8% 96% 0% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover117.7 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 0% -9.2%
10% -18.4% 0% -17.9%
15% ← realistic here -26.3% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 92% (≥$15,958) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$445 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.39 per $1 lost it wins $4.39
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$26,471
Realized+$24,389
Unrealized−$12,101
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses275 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)92%
Est. fees paid−$256
Open positions1
Markets (closed)285 / 286
History coverage27d ⚠
Avg bet$9,305
Trades / day117.7
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 285 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 96¢ $13,237 $25,336 +$12,099 (+91%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ $13,237 $1,136 −$12,101 (-91%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 3 Tunisia? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Benjamin Nygren: 1+ goals Jun 15 $6 $0 +0%
Alexander Isak: 1+ goals Jun 15 $140 $0 +0%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $20 $0 +0%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $15 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $25,677 +$26 +0%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $955 +$10 +1%
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Jun 14 $11,355 +$11 +0%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $23,749 +$24 +0%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $6 $0 +0%
Spread: Türkiye (-2.5) Jun 14 $6 $0 +0%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Neither team to score first? Jun 14 $2,743 +$3 +0%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $41 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $79,024 $0 +0%
Cattolica: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Francesco Forti Jun 13 $9,883 +$10 +0%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Michael Mmo Jun 13 $9,276 +$10 +0%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $26,299 +$266 +1%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $129,733 $0 +0%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $25,086 +$25 +0%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 13 $768 +$1 +0%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $21,597 +$428 +2%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 12 $118 $0 +0%
Canada to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $1,967 +$2 +0%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 12 $400 $0 +0%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 12 $114 $0 +0%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $124 $0 +0%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $116 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $3,805 +$38 +1%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $25,542 +$258 +1%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur Jun 12 $14,441 +$15 +0%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $24,055 +$24 +0%
Lyon: Dali Blanch vs David Jorda Sanchis Jun 12 $1,441 +$1 +0%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 11 $7,081 +$7 +0%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $595 +$1 +0%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $15,594 +$16 +0%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 11 $2,086 +$2 +0%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $136 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $25,468 +$25 +0%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $25,443 +$25 +0%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $25,417 +$25 +0%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Nigeria 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 10 $6 $0 +0%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Portugal O/U 0.5 Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 Nigeria? Jun 10 $6 $0 +0%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 10 $203 +$7 +3%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $22,001 +$22 +0%
Ilkley: Alex Bolt vs Keegan Smith Jun 10 $3,180 +$3 +0%
Tucuman: Juan Estevez vs Matias Soto Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 09 $24,221 +$24 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Alexander Isak: 1+ goals BUY Yes 100¢ $60 1h
Alexander Isak: 1+ goals BUY Yes 100¢ $6 1h
Alexander Isak: 1+ goals BUY Yes 100¢ $1 1h
Benjamin Nygren: 1+ goals BUY No 100¢ $6 1h
Alexander Isak: 1+ goals BUY Yes 100¢ $73 1h
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 3 Tunisia? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 100¢ $15 8h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 100¢ $20 8h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY Vitality 100¢ $8,839 12h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY Vitality 100¢ $6 12h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY Vitality 100¢ $4,995 12h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY Vitality 100¢ $11,836 12h
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 99¢ $0 12h
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 99¢ $20 12h
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 99¢ $104 12h
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 99¢ $178 12h
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 99¢ $50 12h
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 99¢ $30 12h
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 99¢ $17 12h
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 99¢ $29 12h
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 99¢ $75 12h
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 99¢ $19 12h
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 99¢ $64 12h
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 99¢ $55 12h
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 99¢ $4 12h
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 99¢ $311 12h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 98¢ $4 12h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Aurora Gaming 98¢ $1 12h
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili BUY Nikoloz Basilashvili 100¢ $5 16h
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili BUY Nikoloz Basilashvili 100¢ $500 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $26,471.35 · official $26,474.00 (match) · 3500 history records