Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:16:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x64c9…4869 sports 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$246 (-17%) realized −$242 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%6W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day12.5pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$96now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% −$147
other 39% −$44
world 11% −$98
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-32.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -25.0% -32.2% 30% 30% -29.1%
≤30d 20 -25.0% -32.2% 30% 30% -29.1%
≤90d 20 -25.0% -32.2% 30% 30% -29.1%
all 20 -25.0% -32.2% 30% 30% -29.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.2% 30% -29.1%
10% -38.7% 30% -35.9%
15% -44.6% 30% -42.1%
20% -50.0% 10% -47.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -39% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$38 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$96
Realized−$242
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses6 / 14
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)20 / 21
History coverage4d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day12.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Switzerland leading at halftime? Yes 46¢ 44¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $31 −$25 -82%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $203 +$91 +45%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $192 +$80 +42%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $26 −$19 -74%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $29 −$23 -78%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $198 −$143 -72%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $50 −$28 -56%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $19 +$7 +36%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 −$6 -54%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $20 −$1 -5%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $26 +$18 +70%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $119 −$94 -79%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $158 −$98 -62%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 +$9 +43%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$46 +223%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$29 -56%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $123 −$51 -41%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland leading at halftime? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 1h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) SELL Czechia 6¢ $6 1h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 31¢ $31 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 77¢ $294 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $203 14h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 70¢ $192 18h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 3¢ $7 24h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 11¢ $6 24h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $29 24h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $26 24h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 15¢ $55 24h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $198 36h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 37h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 12¢ $9 37h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 37h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $6 37h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 14¢ $20 37h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 39¢ $21 37h
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 38h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 12¢ $5 38h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $19 39h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 45¢ $19 39h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 46¢ $20 39h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 10¢ $18 39h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 25¢ $10 39h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 7¢ $10 39h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 39h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 46¢ $44 40h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 26¢ $26 42h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) SELL Norway 8¢ $25 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $95.65 · official $95.65 (match) · 48 history records