Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:30:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
64 0x64d1…7709 other 134 markets active 1h ago coverage 157d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,703 (-1%) realized −$1,702 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate18%24W / 109L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$967per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$675now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$13
14 days−$23
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$7
politics 27% −$16
sports 11% −$1,616
economics 3% −$3
world 2% −$65
culture 1% −$2
tech 1% −$1
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 23 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 68 -1.6% -10.9% 3% 0% -11.1%
all 133 -1.0% -10.4% 18% 12% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 12% -10.8%
10% -19.0% 12% -19.3%
15% -26.8% 8% -27.1%
20% -34.0% 6% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,289) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$20 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage
Net worth$675
Realized−$1,702
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses24 / 109
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)133 / 134
History coverage157d
Avg bet$967
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 133 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $676 $675 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $227 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 20 $287 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 17 $469 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $4,900 −$6 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $4,713 −$6 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $3,020 −$3 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $942 −$2 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,632 −$2 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $1,008 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $881 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $1,748 −$3 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 03 $709 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $1,972 −$3 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,168 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? Jun 02 $62 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? Jun 02 $423 +$1 +0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 31 $709 −$1 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 27 $1,988 −$4 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 26 $650 −$2 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 25 $708 −$1 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 24 $727 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 24 $1,445 −$2 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $1,702 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $3,533 −$4 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1,216 −$2 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 07 $1,017 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $3,111 −$4 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 01 $1,149 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $1,276 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $2,181 −$2 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 29 $1,855 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $2,172 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $1,604 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? Apr 21 $346 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr Apr 21 $298 $0 +0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $1,044 −$1 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $1,081 −$1 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $2,885 −$3 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $3,596 −$4 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $1,140 −$1 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $1,030 −$1 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $1,339 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $3,763 −$5 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $1,815 −$2 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 14 $904 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 13 $794 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $1,032 −$1 -0%
Will Park Yong-jin win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 12 $1,012 −$1 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $1,023 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 11 $1,381 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $227 1h
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $227 1h
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $286 1h
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $287 3h
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $468 2d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $469 2d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $676 3d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,108 5d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,110 5d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,007 6d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,008 6d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $951 7d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $952 7d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $941 7d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $942 8d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $978 8d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $980 8d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,162 8d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,164 8d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,006 12d
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,008 12d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $879 13d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $881 13d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,038 16d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,040 16d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $708 16d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $709 17d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,135 17d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,137 17d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,166 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $675.25 · official $675.25 (match) · 438 history records