Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:53:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
64 0x64d1…08ab world 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 249d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+2%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate42%11W / 15L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% +$2
other 34% +$5
politics 12% +$2
crypto 7% $0
economics 7% $0
sports 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.7% -8.9% 38% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 9 +2.7% -7.1% 44% 11% -8.9%
≤90d 9 +2.7% -7.1% 44% 11% -8.9%
all 26 +2.3% -7.4% 42% 12% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.4% 12% -8.0%
10% -16.3% 4% -16.8%
15% -24.4% 0% -24.8%
20% -31.8% 0% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
73% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×7.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×13.2 per $1 lost it wins $13.2
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

249d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses11 / 15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage249d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 19 $31 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $66 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $30 +$1 +4%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $30 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $30 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $31 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $24 +$1 +3%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $2 $0 +18%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 31 $2 +$1 +33%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 31 $0 $0 -8%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Jan 31 $2 $0 -10%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Dec 11 $40 +$6 +14%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $44 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Nov 21 $19 +$1 +6%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in October? Nov 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 19 $19 $0 -0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31? Oct 19 $19 $0 +0%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Oct 18 $18 $0 +0%
Trump out as President in 2025? Oct 18 $17 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Oct 17 $17 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 17 $17 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 14 $8 $0 +0%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 14 $17 $0 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Oct 13 $6 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 87¢ $7 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 87¢ $24 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 87¢ $4 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 87¢ $27 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $34 3h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $34 5h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $32 12h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $32 16h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 69¢ $32 27h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $11 30h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $20 30h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $7 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $24 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $30 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 65¢ $30 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 65¢ $6 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 65¢ $23 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $15 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $15 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $30 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $1 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $5 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $24 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $31 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $25 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 76¢ $24 6d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL Yes $0 8d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? SELL Yes $2 8d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY Yes $0 8d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? BUY Yes $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 97 history records