Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:16:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x64d1…a733 world 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 404d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+1%) realized +$7 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate47%18W / 20L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 66% +$7
other 22% −$1
politics 7% +$3
crypto 3% $0
sports 2% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.1% -9.4% 20% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 18 +0.4% -9.1% 44% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 18 +0.4% -9.1% 44% 0% -8.9%
all 38 -2.3% -11.6% 47% 0% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 0% -8.9%
10% -20.0% 0% -17.6%
15% -27.8% 0% -25.5%
20% -34.8% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.61 per $1 lost it wins $3.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

404d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses18 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage404d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 88¢ 90¢ $49 $50 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $49 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $44 $0 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $32 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $36 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $16 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $44 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 03 $44 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $44 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $16 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $21 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 31 $1 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 31 $117 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 31 $37 +$1 +2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 30 $1 $0 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 30 $43 +$1 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 30 $46 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 29 $76 +$1 +2%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $40 +$2 +4%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? Dec 14 $2 $0 +2%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Jul 05 $23 +$1 +5%
Will Bobby Kotick buy TikTok? Jun 28 $6 $0 +3%
Will Gianluigi Donnarumma win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 03 $23 $0 +0%
Will Lewis Hamilton finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Jun 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Las Vegas Raiders? Jun 03 $24 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June? Jun 03 $23 +$1 +2%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? May 30 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? May 30 $23 +$2 +8%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? May 27 $5 −$1 -21%
Will Isack Hadjar finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? May 24 $26 $0 -0%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by 0-3%? May 23 $2 $0 -1%
Will Hubert Hurkacz win the 2025 French Open? May 23 $26 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship May 22 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? May 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will Chet Holmgren Win the 2025 NBA Finals MVP? May 20 $27 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1600 in May? May 20 $28 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Maple Leafs win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 20 $2 $0 +3%
Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th May 20 $25 +$2 +7%
Will Elon tweet 325–349 times May 9–16? May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $49 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 47¢ $49 6h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 47¢ $49 8h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $44 16h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $12 20h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $32 20h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 33¢ $32 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $28 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $4 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 93¢ $36 3d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 93¢ $36 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $14 5d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $16 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 63¢ $24 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 63¢ $20 19d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $44 19d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 52¢ $44 19d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 52¢ $39 20d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 52¢ $5 20d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $44 21d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $6 21d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $38 21d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $14 21d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $14 21d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $21 22d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $21 22d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes $0 23d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL Yes $1 23d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY Yes $0 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.23 · official $50.23 (match) · 124 history records