Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:12:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

64
0x64d5…bdf0
sports · 99 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$86 -13%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$85 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5
Realized−$85
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses26 / 72
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)98 / 99
History coverage65d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 1 History 98 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$10
14 days−$24
30 days−$62
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 36¢ 34¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 Winner Aurora Gaming 15¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 - Map 2 Winner B8 9¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner 3DMAX 8¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Monte 7¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A Vitality 31¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Gentle Mates 16¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Team Falcons 14¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: RED Canids vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner RED Canids 3¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner BetBoom Team 5¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs PARIVISION - Map 1 Winner TheMongolz 30¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest - Map 2 Winner Liquid 20¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 17¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 - Map 2 Winner G2 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner FUT Esports 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Astralis - Map 2 Winner 3DMAX 13¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner 3DMAX 6¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage Gentle Mates 3¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Natus Vincere 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs K27 - Map 1 Winner K27 5¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A G2 11¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs EYEBALLERS (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Playoffs EYEBALLERS 20¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Down 39¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $5 +$7 +129%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $2 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $3 −$3 -97%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest - Map 2 Winner Jun 05 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest - Map 1 Winner Jun 05 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET May 30 $9 −$9 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET May 30 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET May 30 $13 +$14 +109%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner May 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner May 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: magic vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner May 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs May 16 $12 −$12 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner May 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner May 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 12 $24 −$24 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner May 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 12 $4 −$4 -97%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Gentle Mates - Map 1 Winner May 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs BC.Game Esports - Map 1 Winner May 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs FaZe (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Spirit (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner May 11 $6 +$19 +345%
Will 9z win PGL Astana 2026? May 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs 9z (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stage May 11 $3 +$4 +128%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs K27 - Map 2 Winner May 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs K27 - Map 1 Winner May 09 $2 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs The Huns Esports - Map 1 Winner May 09 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 08 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 08 $5 +$10 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 08 $2 +$4 +181%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 3 Winner May 03 $7 −$7 -97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO5) - BLAST Rivals Playoff May 03 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner May 03 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner May 03 $6 −$2 -32%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner May 01 $5 −$5 -97%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Apr 30 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Apr 29 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Apr 21 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Apr 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Apr 21 $9 +$7 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Apr 21 $5 +$4 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Apr 21 $5 +$5 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Apr 21 $7 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Apr 21 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Apr 21 $22 −$22 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Apr 19 $11 −$1 -9%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Apr 19 $5 −$2 -39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 59% −$76
crypto 38% +$6
other 3% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 79¢ $12 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 34¢ $5 2h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 13h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 13¢ $5 30h
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 28¢ $5 30h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 17¢ $5 2d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG - Map 2 Winner BUY BIG 4¢ $2 5d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Monte 7¢ $3 7d
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 BUY NRG 15¢ $3 8d
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest - Map 2 Winner BUY Liquid 20¢ $5 8d
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest - Map 1 Winner BUY Liquid 11¢ $3 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $4 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $10 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 77¢ $27 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 14d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 14¢ $4 27d
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs GamerLegion - Map 2 Winner BUY GamerLegion 4¢ $1 28d
Counter-Strike: magic vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY magic 2¢ $1 28d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs BUY Vitality 5¢ $5 28d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs BUY Vitality 30¢ $7 28d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 25¢ $5 28d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 4¢ $5 29d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A BUY Vitality 20¢ $10 32d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A BUY Vitality 39¢ $4 32d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A BUY Vitality 57¢ $10 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -42.8% -48.3% 25% 25% -52.3%
≤30d 17 -74.3% -76.7% 12% 12% -65.1%
≤90d 98 -16.3% -24.2% 27% 27% -22.0%
all 98 -16.3% -24.2% 27% 27% -22.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.2% 27% -22.0%
10% -31.5% 27% -29.4%
15% -38.1% 27% -36.3%
20% -44.2% 27% -42.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.65 · official $4.65 (match) · 176 history records