Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:01:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
64 0x64df…9d03 other 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 299d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$14 (+2%) realized +$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate37%11W / 19L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% +$3
world 33% −$2
politics 10% $0
sports 6% +$13
crypto 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.6% -10.1% 17% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 6 -0.6% -10.1% 17% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 6 -0.6% -10.1% 17% 0% -10.3%
all 30 +4.8% -5.2% 37% 7% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.2% 7% -7.9%
10% -14.3% 7% -16.7%
15% -22.6% 3% -24.7%
20% -30.2% 3% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 93% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×4.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.35 per $1 lost it wins $6.35
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

299d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses11 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage299d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $62 −$1 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $56 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $8 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $57 −$2 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $63 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 10 $6 $0 -2%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 14 $6 $0 +7%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 26 $54 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $54 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $53 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $55 $0 +0%
Patriots vs. Bengals Nov 25 $42 +$13 +30%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 20 $42 $0 -0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $43 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 19 $2 +$3 +107%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 19 $39 $0 -0%
Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Oct 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 12 $6 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Oct 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025? Oct 11 $3 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 10 $6 $0 +1%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 01 $5 $0 +1%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Sep 25 $43 $0 +1%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $290 in August? Aug 22 $5 $0 -0%
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Antoine Massey in 2025? Aug 20 $5 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 87¢ $61 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 88¢ $62 3h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $39 20h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $17 20h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $6 22h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $22 22h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $28 22h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 28h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 28h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 28h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $8 32h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 64¢ $10 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 64¢ $26 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 65¢ $37 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 38¢ $19 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 40¢ $20 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 83¢ $20 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 83¢ $12 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 83¢ $31 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 83¢ $63 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $6 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $6 4d
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? SELL Yes 79¢ $54 200d
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? BUY Yes 79¢ $54 200d
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? SELL No 81¢ $6 201d
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? SELL No 73¢ $54 201d
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? BUY No 81¢ $6 201d
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? BUY No 73¢ $54 201d
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? SELL Yes 73¢ $3 201d
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? SELL Yes 73¢ $3 201d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 141 history records