Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:15:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
64 0x64e0…9fe5 other 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 606d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-0%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate25%13W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$344per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% −$13
politics 14% −$10
other 6% +$10
tech 1% $0
sports 1% −$1
economics 1% $0
finance 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 17 +10.5% +0.0% 24% 12% -7.2%
≤90d 39 +3.1% -6.7% 26% 15% -9.0%
all 52 +2.2% -7.5% 25% 12% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 12% -9.6%
10% -16.4% 12% -18.2%
15% -24.5% 12% -26.1%
20% -31.9% 12% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×2.41 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

606d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses13 / 39
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)52 / 53
History coverage606d
Avg bet$344
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Philadelphia Phillies 66¢ 66¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $22 $0 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $20 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $13 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $22 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $16 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $1.80 in May? Jun 05 $28 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? Jun 05 $38 $0 +0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $18 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 27 $16 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $18 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $183 $0 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers May 22 $10 +$10 +101%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 21 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 20 $97 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $13 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $168 $0 -0%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins May 18 $11 +$9 +79%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 11 $164 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $85 $0 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Apr 30 $86 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 24 $87 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 24 $88 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 23 $84 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 23 $87 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $87 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $87 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $81 $0 -0%
Will Scott Bessent be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 18 $87 $0 -0%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $7 +$12 +165%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $12 +$8 +72%
Blue Jackets vs. Red Wings Apr 08 $5 +$5 +104%
Predators vs. Kings Apr 08 $6 −$6 -100%
76ers vs. Spurs Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 07 $8 +$8 +101%
Will Solana reach $150 in March? Apr 06 $25 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in March? Apr 06 $51 $0 +0%
Texas A&M Aggies vs. Saint Mary's Gaels Mar 27 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 05 $96 $0 +0%
Based FDV above $3B one day after launch? Feb 27 $97 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Feb 13 $14 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 13 $94 $0 +0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Dec 29 $13,531 −$14 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 16 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 05 $15 $0 -2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $8 $0 -2%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 17 $21 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 10 $372 −$2 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 31 $555 −$4 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 66¢ $7 1h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $22 19h
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $22 22h
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $20 32h
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $20 36h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $13 2d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $13 2d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $22 7d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $22 7d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $16 10d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $16 10d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $18 17d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $18 17d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $16 18d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $16 18d
Will XRP reach $1.80 in May? BUY No 100¢ $28 19d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $18 19d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $18 19d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $20 23d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $20 23d
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $11 24d
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $11 24d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Cleveland Guardians 49¢ $10 25d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $18 25d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $18 25d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $13 26d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $38 26d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $13 26d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $85 28d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $85 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.21 · official $7.21 (match) · 243 history records