Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:13:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
64 0x64e3…18e9 other 97 markets active 2h ago coverage 471d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$16 (+0%) realized +$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate33%32W / 65L
Whale WR25%big bets
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$122per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$12
14 days+$12
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 40% +$8
other 26% $0
world 21% +$15
politics 10% −$1
crypto 1% −$1
tech 1% +$1
finance 0% −$7
culture 0% $0
weather 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +1.6% -8.1% 38% 12% -8.6%
≤30d 25 -0.4% -9.9% 24% 4% -9.3%
≤90d 39 -0.4% -9.9% 21% 3% -9.4%
all 97 +0.2% -9.4% 33% 3% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 3% -9.4%
10% -18.0% 1% -18.1%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 25% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.89 per $1 lost it wins $1.89
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

471d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses32 / 65
Whale WR (big bets)25%
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)97 / 97
History coverage471d
Avg bet$122
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 97 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 18 $167 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $39 −$1 -3%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $181 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $19 $0 -3%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $154 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $293 +$2 +1%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $223 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $67 +$12 +18%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $51 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 10 $282 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $141 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $449 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $296 +$1 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab Jun 01 $3 $0 -2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $2 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 28 $141 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $132 +$2 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $154 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $31 −$7 -22%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 25 $145 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $146 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 24 $7 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 24 $41 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 22 $145 +$1 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $262 −$1 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $30 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in April 2026? Apr 25 $89 −$2 -2%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most Apr 24 $89 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 17 $1,013 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $914 +$9 +1%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 16 $12 −$1 -6%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 16 $913 +$2 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 15 $691 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $913 −$1 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $914 −$1 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 15 $26 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 14 $914 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $915 −$1 -0%
Will Botafogo RJ win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 09 $2 $0 +4%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 23 $34 −$1 -2%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 09 $16 $0 +0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Jun 09 $7 $0 -1%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 07 $16 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 06 $17 $0 +0%
Will Anthony Albanese be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 05 $17 $0 +0%
Will Larry Ellison buy TikTok before July? Jun 05 $17 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jun-seok endorse Kim Moon-soo? Jun 04 $17 $0 +2%
Will valid votes be between 36 million and 38 million in South Korean Jun 02 $16 $0 -0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Jun 01 $17 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 67¢ $119 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 67¢ $48 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 67¢ $167 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $38 11h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 11h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $17 11h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $17 11h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $12 16h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $12 17h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 19h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $7 19h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 19h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 19h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 19h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $19 21h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $39 26h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $11 26h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $46 26h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $26 26h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $47 26h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $169 27h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $154 46h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $154 46h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $154 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 89¢ $152 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $83 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $83 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $80 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 44¢ $67 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $141 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 299 history records