Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T03:41:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x64e3…558c world 80 markets active 2h ago coverage 534d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate37%29W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$5
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% −$2
sports 16% +$7
other 16% +$2
politics 11% −$21
economics 7% $0
finance 2% +$5
weather 0% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -1.5% -10.9% 22% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 28 -1.3% -10.7% 36% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 46 -3.0% -12.3% 35% 0% -9.4%
all 78 -9.4% -18.0% 37% 9% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.0% 9% -9.5%
10% -25.8% 9% -18.2%
15% -33.0% 9% -26.1%
20% -39.6% 9% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

534d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses29 / 49
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)78 / 80
History coverage534d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-1%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 85¢ 97¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 24 $39 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $60 −$4 -7%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $20 −$1 -6%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 19 $48 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 19 $162 +$1 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $44 −$1 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $44 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 15 $7 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $34 +$2 +5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $79 +$2 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $41 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $40 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 11 $19 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $72 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $4 −$1 -27%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $65 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $8 $0 -2%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $61 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $86 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 30 $59 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 28 $24 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $16 −$1 -5%
Will Alberta join the US? May 28 $46 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 27 $53 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $124 +$1 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $41 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $8 −$1 -10%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $77 +$5 +6%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 22 $37 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 20 $37 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $38 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 18 $44 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 15 $2 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $41 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 14 $41 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $261 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $235 +$2 +1%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 25 $235 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $235 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 24 $236 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $10 $0 +2%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $259 $0 +0%
Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 07 $1 $0 +3%
Will Elon tweet 280–294 times June 13–20? Jun 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 French Open? Jun 05 $2 $0 +5%
Will Baldassare Reina be the next pope? May 09 $2 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $43 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 95¢ $39 9h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 95¢ $39 10h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 16h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 17h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 20h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 24h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 24h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 48¢ $5 30h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 48¢ $14 30h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 46¢ $18 32h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $9 34h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 36h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $5 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $32 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 59¢ $41 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 4d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 4d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $48 5d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $48 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $17 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 56¢ $27 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $24 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $16 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $5 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $44 6d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 82¢ $44 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 6d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.32 · official $42.75 (match) · 267 history records