trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Extended FDV above $150M one day after launch? | Yes | 64¢ | 75¢ | $100 | $117 | +$17 (+17%) |
| Extended FDV above $300M one day after launch? | Yes | 54¢ | 44¢ | $20 | $16 | −$4 (-18%) |
| Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? | Yes | 30¢ | 30¢ | $15 | $15 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? | Yes | 24¢ | 24¢ | $12 | $12 | −$0 (-2%) |
| Will United States win on 2026-06-12? | Yes | 47¢ | 46¢ | $11 | $11 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch? | Yes | 36¢ | 38¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+7%) |
| Ethereum all time high in 2024? | Yes | 21¢ | 0¢ | $20 | $0 | −$20 (-100%) |
| Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? | Yes | 34¢ | 0¢ | $40 | $0 | −$40 (-100%) |
| Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch? | Yes | 87¢ | 0¢ | $122 | $0 | −$122 (-100%) |
| EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? | Yes | 85¢ | 0¢ | $85 | $0 | −$85 (-100%) |
| EdgeX FDV above $3B one day after launch? | Yes | 45¢ | 0¢ | $45 | $0 | −$45 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Backpack FDV above $5B one day after launch? | Mar 25 | $89 | +$11 | +12% |
| Will edgeX launch a token in 2025? | Mar 22 | $22 | +$29 | +132% |
| Will Jesus Christ return in 2025? | Mar 22 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? | Mar 22 | $5 | $0 | +8% |
| Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? | Mar 22 | $61 | +$39 | +64% |
| Will Backpack launch a token by December 31, 2026? | Mar 22 | $248 | +$22 | +9% |
| Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch? | Nov 13 | $122 | −$122 | -100% |
| EdgeX FDV above $3B one day after launch? | Nov 08 | $45 | −$45 | -100% |
| EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch? | Nov 06 | $85 | −$85 | -100% |
| LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) | Nov 03 | $341 | +$25 | +7% |
| LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) | Nov 01 | $614 | −$8 | -1% |
| Over $1B committed to the MegaETH public sale? | Oct 31 | $10 | +$1 | +10% |
| Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? | Oct 22 | $40 | −$40 | -100% |
| Ethereum all time high in 2024? | Dec 13 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2024 meeting? | Dec 13 | $6 | −$6 | -100% |
| China wins the most medals in 2024 Paris Olympics? | Dec 13 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| China wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics? | Dec 13 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Dec 13 | $198 | −$198 | -100% |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Dec 13 | $58 | +$33 | +58% |
| Arbitrum airdrop by March 31st? | Sep 18 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | 6 | +37.6% | +24.5% | 100% | 50% | +12.0% |
| all | 20 | -35.0% | -41.2% | 45% | 20% | -26.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -41.2% | 20% | -26.7% |
| 10% | -46.9% | 15% | -33.7% |
| 15% | -52.0% | 15% | -40.1% |
| 20% | -56.7% | 15% | -46.0% |