Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:27:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x64e9…9324 sports 110 markets active 0h ago coverage 21d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (57 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,140 (+1%) realized +$1,302 · open −$162
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate67%70W / 35L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,468per market
Trades / day56.8pace
Fees−$1,100est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$510now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$653
7 days−$2,872
14 days−$949
30 days+$974
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% +$356
other 12% +$705
world 0% +$49
crypto 0% −$298
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (57 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 +1.8% -7.9% 55% 39% -13.8%
≤30d 105 +7.8% -2.4% 67% 39% -9.0%
≤90d 105 +7.8% -2.4% 67% 39% -9.0%
all 105 +7.8% -2.4% 67% 39% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover56.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.4% 39% -9.0%
10% -11.8% 33% -17.7%
15% ← realistic here -20.3% 30% -25.6%
20% -28.1% 23% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$2,949) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +13% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
8.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$136 vs −$244 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$510
Realized+$1,302
Unrealized−$162
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses70 / 35
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$1,100
Open positions3
Markets (closed)105 / 110
History coverage21d
Avg bet$1,468
Trades / day56.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 45¢ 28¢ $455 $285 −$170 (-37%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $178 $184 +$7 (+4%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 82¢ 86¢ $38 $40 +$2 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $710 +$14 +2%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2,557 +$114 +4%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $129 −$31 -24%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $55 −$55 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $3,960 +$40 +1%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1,924 +$170 +9%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $1,230 +$482 +39%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $4,297 +$4 +0%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $83 +$15 +18%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-5.5) Jun 18 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $67 −$67 -100%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $49 +$51 +104%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $55 −$55 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $110 −$110 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -73%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $12 −$10 -82%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $770 $0 -0%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $211 +$92 +44%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $315 +$185 +59%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $322 +$184 +57%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $78 +$22 +29%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $3,326 −$296 -9%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $285 +$31 +11%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $77 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $323 −$253 -78%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $348 +$237 +68%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $545 −$250 -46%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $5,896 −$3,306 -56%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $106 +$94 +89%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $7,029 +$76 +1%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $50 +$22 +44%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $7,283 −$292 -4%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $57 −$57 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5,121 −$91 -2%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $302 −$302 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $1,496 +$392 +26%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $5,340 +$48 +1%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $5,513 −$171 -3%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +10%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $130 +$70 +54%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $113 +$90 +79%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $373 +$127 +34%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 209.5 Jun 14 $34 +$66 +194%
Spread: Dallas Wings (-5.5) Jun 14 $0 $0 +114%
Dallas Wings vs. PortlandFire Jun 14 $0 +$1 +238%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $16 −$6 -38%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 13 $109 −$109 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$4 +76%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3,650 +$297 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL No 73¢ $724 24m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 45¢ $112 31m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 45¢ $112 36m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $230 37m
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $58 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $7 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $5 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $2 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $327 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $21 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $135 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $2 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $7 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $2 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $34 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $71 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $9 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $2 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $4 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 71¢ $21 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 50¢ $98 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 64¢ $48 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 64¢ $16 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 65¢ $64 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 65¢ $1 1h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 96¢ $2,557 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 37¢ $708 5h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 37¢ $92 5h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 37¢ $1 5h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 37¢ $6 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $509.50 · official $519.60 · 1280 history records