Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:46:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x64ed…41b2 sports 112 markets active 1h ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$833 (-4%) realized −$833 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate72%81W / 31L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$170per market
Trades / day10.8pace
Fees−$143est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$154
7 days−$326
14 days+$2
30 days−$1,146
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$806
other 2% −$99
crypto 2% −$85
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -12.2% -20.6% 71% 38% -15.3%
≤30d 107 -6.6% -15.5% 71% 48% -15.3%
≤90d 112 -5.0% -14.0% 72% 49% -14.3%
all 112 -5.0% -14.0% 72% 49% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 49% -14.3%
10% -22.2% 35% -22.5%
15% -29.7% 20% -30.0%
20% -36.6% 11% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$136 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$833
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses81 / 31
Est. fees paid−$143
Open positions0
Markets (closed)112 / 112
History coverage31d
Avg bet$170
Trades / day10.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 112 Trades
no open positions (29 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $99 +$8 +8%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $91 +$9 +10%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 18 $213 +$106 +50%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $752 +$348 +46%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $75 +$25 +33%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $657 −$650 -99%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers - Game 1 Winner Jun 18 $86 +$40 +47%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $38 −$38 -98%
Japan leading at halftime? Jun 14 $32 −$32 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $206 +$9 +4%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $45 −$45 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $130 +$70 +54%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $395 +$104 +26%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $230 +$10 +4%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $282 +$15 +5%
Australia leading at halftime? Jun 14 $80 +$20 +25%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $418 −$414 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $951 +$49 +5%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $253 +$47 +18%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $93 +$7 +7%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $405 +$23 +6%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $466 +$34 +7%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $540 +$72 +13%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $421 +$89 +21%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $302 +$120 +40%
Spread: China PR (-1.5) Jun 09 $199 +$55 +28%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $187 −$187 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $94 +$6 +6%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $8 +$2 +32%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $221 +$143 +65%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $198 −$73 -37%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $171 +$45 +26%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 05 $27 +$12 +46%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $21 −$21 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $29 −$29 -98%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $73 +$5 +6%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 05 $90 +$10 +11%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $90 +$9 +10%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $83 +$16 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 04 $106 −$106 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 04 $87 +$13 +15%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $113 −$112 -99%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $77 +$23 +30%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $26 +$74 +285%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 03 $115 +$2 +2%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 03 $95 +$19 +20%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 02 $81 +$56 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 02 $74 +$6 +8%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $90 −$90 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner SELL REKONIX 98¢ $107 58m
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner BUY REKONIX 91¢ $72 1h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner BUY REKONIX 91¢ $27 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 91¢ $91 10h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China BUY Vici Gaming 66¢ $213 46h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner SELL Vici Gaming 99¢ $1,100 46h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 80¢ $225 46h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 65¢ $44 47h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 65¢ $93 47h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 65¢ $46 47h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 67¢ $63 47h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 67¢ $14 47h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 61¢ $227 47h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 57¢ $41 47h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Vici Gaming $9 47h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 11¢ $11 47h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 10¢ $12 47h
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 26¢ $11 2d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 29¢ $38 2d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 33¢ $27 2d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 38¢ $15 2d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 40¢ $17 2d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 54¢ $87 2d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 56¢ $114 2d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 62¢ $20 2d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 69¢ $41 2d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 73¢ $147 2d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 69¢ $34 2d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 62¢ $36 2d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 63¢ $38 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 361 history records