Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T02:36:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x64ee…d3d6 other 80 markets active 1h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,123 (-29%) realized −$1,097 · open −$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate13%10W / 66L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$224now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$410
7 days−$679
14 days−$1,123
30 days−$1,213
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$1,180
politics 25% −$46
sports 21% −$56
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-28.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 -40.7% -46.3% 11% 11% -38.5%
≤30d 75 -20.7% -28.3% 13% 13% -43.1%
≤90d 76 -20.8% -28.3% 13% 13% -42.2%
all 76 -20.8% -28.3% 13% 13% -42.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.3% 13% -42.2%
10% -35.2% 13% -47.8%
15% -41.4% 12% -52.8%
20% -47.2% 12% -57.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -48% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$109 vs −$36 · ×3.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$224
Realized−$1,097
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses10 / 66
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions4
Markets (closed)76 / 80
History coverage38d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 50¢ 48¢ $120 $116 −$4 (-3%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Yes 37¢ 30¢ $50 $41 −$9 (-18%)
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Yes 24¢ 20¢ $50 $41 −$9 (-19%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Yes 28¢ 24¢ $30 $26 −$4 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 62 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $51 +$176 +344%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $18 −$18 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $95 −$94 -98%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $41 −$40 -97%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $51 +$96 +188%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $42 −$41 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 24 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $71 −$70 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $56 −$55 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $9 +$5 +59%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 23 $72 −$70 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $52 −$51 -97%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $62 −$60 -97%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $21 −$20 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $21 +$179 +873%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 21 $712 −$4 -0%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $37 −$36 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $21 −$9 -43%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $65 −$63 -97%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $21 +$122 +596%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 18 $31 −$10 -32%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 18 $22 −$21 -97%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $36 −$35 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 28¢ $31 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $122 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 37¢ $51 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 37¢ $51 2h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 22¢ $31 2h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $227 4h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $18 4h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 5h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 5h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 3¢ $21 6h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 6h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 2¢ $31 6h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 48¢ $95 25h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 26h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 3¢ $31 26h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $147 29h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 27¢ $42 30h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $51 30h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 34¢ $51 30h
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $14 37h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 37h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 37h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 37h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 37h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 37h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 46h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 47h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 47h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $51 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $224.49 · official $224.49 (match) · 162 history records