Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T14:10:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x64f0…aa39 crypto 856 markets active 1h ago coverage 54d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 53d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,970 (-2%) realized −$2,970 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate32%336W / 718L
Whale WR51%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$168per market
Trades / day49.8pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 54d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$3,105
sports 4% −$504
other 1% +$101
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-34.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 216 -94.6% -95.1% 3% 3% -94.3%
≤30d 232 -88.6% -89.7% 7% 3% -56.5%
≤90d 1054 -27.4% -34.3% 32% 16% -15.5%
all 1054 -27.4% -34.3% 32% 16% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -34.3% 16% -15.5%
10% ← realistic here -40.6% 15% -23.6%
15% -46.3% 15% -30.9%
20% -51.6% 15% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
49% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 51% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -9% → late -46% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$28 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2,970
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses336 / 718
Whale WR (big bets)51%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1054 / 856
History coverage54d ⚠
Avg bet$168
Trades / day49.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1054 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - April 20, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 10, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 1, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $0 −$146 -173618%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 14, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 7, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $126 −$126 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 6, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 6, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 11, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $34 −$34 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 21, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $48 −$48 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $37 −$37 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 5, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $135 −$135 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 7, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $59 −$59 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 7, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $60 −$60 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 19, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 15 $48 −$48 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$10 -236%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 19, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $97 −$97 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 6, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 4, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 8, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 21, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $39 −$39 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $174 −$174 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 6, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 16, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $41 −$41 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 16, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 19, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 15 $130 −$130 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 3, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 3, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 4, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $135 −$135 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 22, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $68 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $16 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $70 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $17 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $3 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $16 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $9 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $7 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $15 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $51 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $15 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $30 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $8 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $8 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $8 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records