Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:07:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
64 0x64f0…c73d world 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 485d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$111 (+3%) realized +$118 · open −$7
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate60%21W / 14L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$16
14 days+$16
30 days+$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 64% +$9
other 24% +$24
politics 9% +$79
sports 1% −$4
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -43.3% -48.7% 50% 50% +0.8%
≤30d 2 -43.3% -48.7% 50% 50% +0.8%
≤90d 7 -0.9% -10.4% 71% 57% +5.5%
all 35 -11.0% -19.5% 60% 40% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.5% 40% -6.3%
10% -27.2% 31% -15.3%
15% -34.2% 20% -23.4%
20% -40.7% 14% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$20 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

485d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized+$118
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses21 / 14
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)35 / 37
History coverage485d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $13 $7 −$7 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 21 $137 +$18 +13%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 20 $28 +$22 +76%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 04 $57 −$57 -100%
Genius FDV above $300M one day after launch? Apr 14 $106 +$1 +1%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 12 $83 +$23 +27%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $109 +$83 +76%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 17 $36 −$36 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 17 $200 +$22 +11%
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026? Jan 15 $184 +$14 +8%
Israel military action against Iran before July? Jun 29 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Russia capture territory in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by June 30? Jun 09 $200 +$14 +7%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in May? Jun 02 $429 +$7 +2%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June? May 31 $425 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Yunakivka before June? May 25 $72 +$5 +8%
Will Russia capture territory in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by May 31? May 19 $62 +$18 +29%
India-Pakistan declare war before June? May 18 $30 −$24 -81%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2025? May 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2025? May 18 $56 +$44 +79%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? May 17 $20 −$13 -66%
Will India invade Pakistan before July? May 10 $171 −$2 -1%
Will the next Pope be in favor of Making Priestly Celibacy Optional? May 10 $184 −$4 -2%
Will the next Pope be Black? May 05 $170 +$15 +9%
New Pope in 2025? Apr 29 $40 +$12 +31%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Apr 29 $26 +$13 +50%
Michael Chandler vs. Paddy Pimblett Apr 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes Apr 21 $23 +$17 +72%
Jones - Aspinall date announced before April? Apr 13 $60 −$50 -83%
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? Apr 12 $15 +$25 +170%
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by March 15? Mar 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Feb 28 $60 +$8 +13%
Will Kanye launch a coin in February? Feb 26 $100 +$23 +22%
Will the AfD win 20-25% of the vote in the German election? Feb 24 $22 +$9 +42%
Will the AfD win 25-30% of the vote in the German election? Feb 23 $10 −$10 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $41 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 2.5 BUY Over $2 23h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 98¢ $45 47h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 98¢ $15 47h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 98¢ $96 47h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 86¢ $137 2d
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $14 14d
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 56¢ $28 41d
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? BUY Yes 34¢ $57 50d
Genius FDV above $300M one day after launch? SELL Yes 97¢ $19 70d
Genius FDV above $300M one day after launch? SELL Yes 97¢ $10 70d
Genius FDV above $300M one day after launch? SELL Yes 97¢ $78 70d
Genius FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 96¢ $106 70d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? SELL Yes 98¢ $106 72d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? BUY Yes 77¢ $83 72d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? SELL No 39¢ $151 76d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY No 25¢ $100 76d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? SELL Yes 14¢ $41 77d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY Yes $9 79d
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $36 126d
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $222 126d
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $200 133d
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $198 159d
US strikes Iran by January 15, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $184 159d
Israel military action against Iran before July? BUY No 55¢ $33 376d
Will Russia capture territory in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by June 30? SELL Yes 96¢ $214 379d
Will Russia capture territory in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast by June 30? BUY Yes 90¢ $200 379d
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? BUY Yes $1 388d
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before June? SELL Yes $1 388d
Israel strike on Iranian nuclear facility in May? BUY No 99¢ $30 388d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.16 · official $46.16 (match) · 105 history records