Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:43:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x64f3…aa71 other 306 markets active 1h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$232 (+1%) realized +$237 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate75%226W / 77L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown73%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day24.4pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$80now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$73
7 days+$55
14 days−$140
30 days−$175
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% +$399
politics 5% +$23
sports 2% +$15
crypto 0% −$7
world 0% −$7
finance 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +19.3% +7.9% 62% 57% +1.6%
≤30d 59 +9.7% -0.7% 68% 47% -14.6%
≤90d 303 +20.2% +8.7% 75% 33% -7.8%
all 303 +20.2% +8.7% 75% 33% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +8.7% 33% -7.8%
10% ← realistic here -1.7% 22% -16.6%
15% -11.2% 14% -24.7%
20% -19.9% 11% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +31% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$27 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$80
Realized+$237
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses226 / 77
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions3
Markets (closed)303 / 306
History coverage86d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day24.4
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 303 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Over 84¢ 80¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $27 $23 −$3 (-13%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $19 −$16 -84%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $82 −$20 -25%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 +$6 +12%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $52 +$70 +134%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $36 +$9 +25%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $15 +$11 +70%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $23 +$5 +21%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $29 +$9 +31%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 19 $28 +$1 +5%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $21 +$7 +32%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $13 +$4 +27%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 +$3 +307%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +48%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $6 +$1 +12%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Haiti to score first vs. Scotland? Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $5 +$20 +388%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $66 −$54 -82%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $89 −$89 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $25 +$10 +40%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $37 +$1 +3%
Will USD reach 18,500 Indonesian rupiah by June 30? Jun 13 $0 $0 +100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $44 +$49 +111%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $10 +$4 +42%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $52 −$47 -90%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $46 −$46 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 +44%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Canada O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $50 +$12 +24%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $170 −$63 -37%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$3 +169%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $1 +$1 +140%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $66 +$3 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $20 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $38 +$2 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $76 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $91 +$29 +32%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 06 $28 +$1 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $86 +$34 +40%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $51 +$4 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $98 +$52 +54%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 02 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $28 +$22 +75%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 29 $5 +$2 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 11¢ $3 44m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 15¢ $7 45m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 64¢ $19 46m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $5 52m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 78¢ $0 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 78¢ $5 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 78¢ $3 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 84¢ $8 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 86¢ $2 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 86¢ $7 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 87¢ $9 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $56 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 84¢ $50 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 83¢ $0 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 80¢ $8 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 79¢ $8 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 78¢ $8 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 77¢ $8 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 76¢ $8 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 75¢ $6 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 75¢ $1 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 74¢ $6 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 74¢ $1 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 60¢ $30 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 65¢ $13 2h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $50 8h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 42¢ $52 14h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $36 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $79.82 · official $79.84 (match) · 2287 history records