Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:14:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x64f3…34b6 crypto 372 markets active 1h ago coverage 52d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 51d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (63 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$6,488 (+4%) realized +$6,477 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate58%214W / 156L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$475per market
Trades / day62.7pace
Fees−$218est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$254now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 52d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 57% +$36,011
sports 25% −$1,812
world 8% +$12,551
crypto 8% −$698
other 3% −$460
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (63 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +26.6% +14.5% 83% 21% -7.2%
≤30d 246 -17.1% -25.0% 49% 29% +15.4%
≤90d 370 +0.6% -9.0% 58% 39% +13.9%
all 370 +0.6% -9.0% 58% 39% +13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover62.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.0% 39% +13.9%
10% ← realistic here -17.7% 30% +3.0%
15% -25.6% 25% -7.0%
20% -32.9% 22% -16.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +26% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +16% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$292 vs −$109 · ×2.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.68 per $1 lost it wins $3.68
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$254
Realized+$6,477
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses214 / 156
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$218
Open positions2
Markets (closed)370 / 372
History coverage52d ⚠
Avg bet$475
Trades / day62.7
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 370 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026? No 82¢ 90¢ $164 $180 +$16 (+10%)
KBO: NC Dinos vs. Doosan Bears NC Dinos 46¢ 42¢ $79 $74 −$5 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $1,485 +$13 +1%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $1,485 +$13 +1%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $534 +$5 +1%
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Samsung Lions Jun 21 $31 +$94 +306%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $1,586 +$10 +1%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $694 +$6 +1%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $495 +$4 +1%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. KT Wiz Jun 20 $1,192 +$237 +20%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Hanwha Eagles Jun 20 $565 +$49 +9%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 19 $59 +$1 +2%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $17 $0 -2%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $95 −$87 -91%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $19 +$66 +346%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $920 +$18 +2%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. SSG Landers Jun 18 $69 +$8 +12%
KBO: LG Twins vs. Kia Tigers Jun 18 $511 +$30 +6%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos Jun 17 $451 +$5 +1%
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. Samsung Lions Jun 17 $213 +$2 +1%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 −$7 -7%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos Jun 16 $39 $0 +1%
KBO: Kiwoom Heroes vs. Samsung Lions Jun 16 $1,029 +$68 +7%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $77 −$75 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $100 +$200 +199%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,284 −$355 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 14 $50 +$42 +84%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions Jun 14 $1,386 +$45 +3%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins Jun 14 $611 +$5 +1%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Kia Tigers Jun 14 $128 +$1 +1%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 14 $612 +$5 +1%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $580 +$30 +5%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $211 +$18 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $127 −$124 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 13 $149 −$109 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 13 $112 −$111 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $118 +$77 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $210 +$37 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $383 +$17 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $50 −$35 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 13 $39 +$61 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $266 +$11 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 13 $36 −$35 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $71 −$66 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 13 $45 −$44 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $344 +$44 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 13 $22 +$15 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $538 +$34 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 13 $17 −$16 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $57 +$33 +59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,498 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 99¢ $1,485 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,498 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 99¢ $1,485 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $539 2h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 99¢ $166 2h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 99¢ $275 2h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 99¢ $56 2h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 99¢ $17 2h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 99¢ $20 2h
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Samsung Lions SELL Samsung Lions 36¢ $2 3h
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Samsung Lions SELL Samsung Lions 36¢ $27 3h
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Samsung Lions SELL Samsung Lions 50¢ $0 9h
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Samsung Lions SELL Samsung Lions 50¢ $1 9h
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Samsung Lions SELL Samsung Lions 50¢ $0 9h
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Samsung Lions SELL Samsung Lions 50¢ $1 9h
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Samsung Lions SELL Samsung Lions 50¢ $0 9h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,199 12h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 99¢ $396 12h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 99¢ $396 12h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 99¢ $397 12h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 99¢ $190 12h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 99¢ $40 12h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 99¢ $253 12h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 99¢ $310 12h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $699 12h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $499 12h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 99¢ $396 12h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 99¢ $297 12h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 99¢ $20 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $253.86 · official $253.86 (match) · 3500 history records