Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:23:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x64f6…374e politics 147 markets active 2h ago coverage 119d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$57 (-0%) realized −$57 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate8%12W / 134L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$209per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$14
politics 37% −$14
sports 9% −$29
economics 3% −$1
tech 3% −$1
crypto 2% $0
world 2% −$1
culture 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 14 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 112 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
all 146 -3.5% -12.7% 8% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 3% -9.7%
10% -21.0% 2% -18.3%
15% -28.6% 2% -26.2%
20% -35.6% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×5.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

119d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$57
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses12 / 134
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)146 / 147
History coverage119d
Avg bet$209
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 146 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $33 $33 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 20 $19 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $230 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $31 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $23 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 09 $18 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 08 $26 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju Jun 07 $24 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $18 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $208 $0 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 27 $193 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $174 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $152 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $386 −$1 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $366 −$1 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 21 $173 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 19 $147 $0 -0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 18 $145 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 16 $180 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 14 $208 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $150 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $193 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 13 $148 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $1,040 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $170 $0 -0%
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 11 $398 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $498 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $481 −$1 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 10 $148 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $15 $0 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $197 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $187 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 05 $144 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $381 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $351 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $161 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $168 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $187 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e May 01 $345 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $218 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $182 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 27 $744 −$1 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 27 $156 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 27 $368 $0 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 26 $181 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Apr 26 $203 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 24 $185 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $361 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $187 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 24 $179 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 22 $217 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $33 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $19 4h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $19 23h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $29 23h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $29 47h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $31 6d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 6d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $23 10d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $23 11d
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $18 11d
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $18 11d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $26 12d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $26 13d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL No 100¢ $24 13d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $24 15d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $18 21d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $18 21d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $208 23d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $208 24d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $193 24d
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $193 26d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $174 26d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $174 27d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $152 28d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $152 28d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $197 28d
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $197 29d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $196 29d
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $196 29d
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $173 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.98 · official $32.98 (match) · 427 history records