Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T16:54:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
64 0x64f7…f88f other 44 markets active 1h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$122 (-4%) realized −$122 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate68%28W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$156now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$58
7 days+$105
14 days+$131
30 days−$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% −$168
sports 18% +$4
world 4% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +3.3% -6.5% 68% 52% -4.2%
≤30d 34 +2.2% -7.5% 68% 53% -11.9%
≤90d 38 +2.0% -7.7% 68% 55% -13.1%
all 41 +3.5% -6.4% 68% 56% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 56% -14.2%
10% -15.3% 32% -22.4%
15% -23.5% 22% -29.9%
20% -31.0% 12% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$53 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$156
Realized−$122
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses28 / 13
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)41 / 44
History coverage130d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? No 76¢ 76¢ $74 $74 −$0 (-1%)
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 83¢ $57 $58 +$1 (+1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $139 +$19 +14%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $118 +$21 +18%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $100 +$18 +18%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $115 +$10 +9%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $134 +$16 +12%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Jun 24 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $119 +$15 +13%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $15 +$4 +25%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 23 $112 +$18 +16%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $99 +$13 +13%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $45 −$45 -100%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $25 +$19 +75%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $2 +$13 +634%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $8 +$3 +39%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $55 +$12 +22%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $103 +$7 +6%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $123 +$10 +8%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $112 +$11 +10%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $86 +$26 +30%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $69 +$6 +9%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $36 +$16 +46%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $6 +$4 +67%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$10 +19%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $61 +$26 +43%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $113 +$33 +29%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? Jun 12 $222 −$222 -100%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $99 +$25 +26%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Apr 30 $123 +$75 +62%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-24? Apr 24 $109 +$15 +14%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $164 −$164 -100%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-03-19? Mar 20 $141 −$141 -100%
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-02-18? Feb 18 $91 +$37 +41%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-17? Feb 17 $44 +$56 +127%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY No 76¢ $75 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 50¢ $26 1h
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 82¢ $58 3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 87¢ $139 19h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 84¢ $118 24h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 84¢ $100 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 81¢ $25 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 91¢ $115 3d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 25¢ $5 3d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? SELL No 100¢ $150 3d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 88¢ $134 3d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 88¢ $119 3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score SELL No 100¢ $19 3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 78¢ $15 3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 37¢ $15 3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL No 100¢ $130 3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 85¢ $112 4d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 100¢ $112 4d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 87¢ $99 4d
Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 BUY Under 71¢ $45 4d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 43¢ $20 4d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 56¢ $25 4d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $15 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 4d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 13¢ $2 4d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 97¢ $68 4d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 78¢ $55 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 97¢ $109 4d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 90¢ $103 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $7 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $155.99 · official $155.99 (match) · 94 history records