Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T03:21:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
64 0x64f7…63c3 crypto 171 markets active 1h ago coverage 244d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2,953 (-4%) realized −$2,946 · open −$7
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate67%113W / 56L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$390per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$55
14 days+$63
30 days+$79
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 60% −$2,712
other 33% +$255
sports 4% −$578
world 2% +$55
politics 1% −$1
tech 0% +$9
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +16.2% +5.1% 100% 22% -7.3%
≤30d 18 +9.4% -1.0% 100% 17% -8.0%
≤90d 29 +18.3% +7.1% 90% 17% -4.5%
all 169 -7.9% -16.6% 67% 17% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 17% -13.5%
10% -24.6% 12% -21.8%
15% -31.9% 9% -29.4%
20% -38.6% 7% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
74% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$98 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

244d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized−$2,946
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses113 / 56
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)169 / 171
History coverage244d
Avg bet$390
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 169 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereal FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 95¢ 71¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-25%)
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria (BO5) - The International North America Closed Qualifier Playoffs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria $2 $0 −$2 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $450 +$3 +1%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $400 +$3 +1%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C Jun 25 $20 +$7 +37%
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria (BO3) - The International Jun 25 $373 +$8 +2%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $211 +$20 +10%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $300 +$1 +0%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $100 +$3 +3%
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q Jun 23 $10 +$9 +92%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 22? Jun 23 $400 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 19? Jun 20 $400 +$3 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 17? Jun 18 $300 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 12? Jun 13 $300 +$3 +1%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +16%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $360 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $20 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $311 +$8 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $400 +$1 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $399 +$4 +1%
Solstice FDV above $300M one day after launch? May 26 $184 +$16 +8%
Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch? May 26 $200 −$2 -1%
Solstice FDV above $50M one day after launch? May 25 $300 +$2 +1%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 18 $352 +$24 +7%
Iran coup attempt by June 30? May 18 $10 $0 +2%
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? May 18 $241 −$10 -4%
Will Trump say "Tax" 5+ times during Small Business Summit? May 14 $10 $0 +0%
USD.AI FDV above $1B one day after launch? May 01 $352 +$22 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on April 17? Apr 17 $326 +$26 +8%
Over $8M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Apr 02 $30 +$20 +65%
Over $10M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Mar 30 $75 +$201 +268%
QFEX FDV above $50M one day after launch? Mar 28 $100 −$25 -25%
Over $1M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Mar 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? Mar 27 $2,276 −$2,276 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Mar 27 $389 +$10 +3%
Over $2M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Mar 26 $30 −$7 -23%
Over $3M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Mar 26 $30 +$9 +31%
Over $4M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Mar 26 $60 +$9 +15%
Dota 2: Aurora vs paiN Gaming (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group B Mar 26 $9 −$9 -100%
Over $6M committed to the P2P Protocol public sale? Mar 26 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Iran strike Cyprus in March? Mar 26 $200 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Mar 22 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Mar 22 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Mar 22 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Mar 22 $10 +$15 +146%
Will the Denver Nuggets finish with the best record in the NBA? Mar 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Mar 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 22 $20 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 22 $10 −$2 -16%
Will Comcast close Warner Bros acquisition? Mar 22 $5 −$5 -92%
Will France strike Iran by March 31? Mar 22 $30 +$3 +10%
Predict.fun FDV above $800M one day after launch? Mar 22 $100 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 100¢ $453 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 99¢ $450 1h
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria (BO5) - The International BUY 4 Anchors and Ilmeria $2 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 99¢ $400 6h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C SELL Team Spirit 68¢ $27 37h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe C BUY Team Spirit 49¢ $20 38h
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria (BO3) - The International SELL GamerLegion 100¢ $381 2d
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria (BO3) - The International BUY GamerLegion 98¢ $11 2d
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria (BO3) - The International BUY GamerLegion 98¢ $14 2d
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria (BO3) - The International BUY GamerLegion 98¢ $35 2d
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria (BO3) - The International BUY GamerLegion 98¢ $18 2d
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria (BO3) - The International BUY GamerLegion 98¢ $3 2d
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria (BO3) - The International BUY GamerLegion 98¢ $183 2d
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria (BO3) - The International BUY GamerLegion 98¢ $9 2d
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria (BO3) - The International BUY GamerLegion 98¢ $27 2d
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria (BO3) - The International BUY GamerLegion 98¢ $43 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 100¢ $231 2d
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria (BO3) - The International BUY GamerLegion 95¢ $30 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 91¢ $211 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 100¢ $300 3d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 97¢ $100 3d
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q SELL MODUS 90¢ $19 3d
Dota 2: Rune Eaters vs MODUS (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY MODUS 46¢ $10 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $400 4d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $404 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $400 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $300 9d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 81¢ $6 14d
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $300 14d
Ethereal FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY No 95¢ $20 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.14 · official $15.14 (match) · 419 history records