Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:11:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x64f8…db66 politics 197 markets active 1h ago coverage 101d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$62 (-12%) realized −$65 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate41%63W / 91L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$111now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days−$0
14 days+$20
30 days+$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 31% −$15
other 29% −$16
world 22% −$14
finance 6% −$8
tech 5% −$8
sports 4% −$7
crypto 1% −$2
economics 1% +$1
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -7.3% -16.1% 50% 50% -11.7%
≤30d 26 +37.8% +24.6% 58% 58% +22.1%
≤90d 136 -11.6% -20.0% 42% 41% -25.0%
all 154 -12.9% -21.2% 41% 40% -25.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.2% 40% -25.4%
10% -28.8% 38% -32.6%
15% -35.6% 23% -39.1%
20% -41.9% 19% -45.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

101d coverage
Net worth$111
Realized−$65
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses63 / 91
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions43
Markets (closed)154 / 197
History coverage101d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 43 History 154 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 27¢ 100¢ $2 $7 +$5 (+270%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 28¢ 98¢ $2 $7 +$5 (+251%)
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? No 32¢ 67¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+110%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Yes 46¢ 96¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+108%)
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 43¢ 84¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+94%)
Will Donald Trump announce Keith Sonderling as the next United States Labor Secretary No 60¢ 58¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Will Warsh say "FED" during June Press Conference? Yes 67¢ 90¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+34%)
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by June 30? No 77¢ 97¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+26%)
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? No 51¢ 63¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+24%)
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026? No 39¢ 48¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+23%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 80¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+24%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 62¢ 75¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+22%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 42¢ 52¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+23%)
Will Warsh say "Asymmetric" during June Press Conference? No 60¢ 74¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+22%)
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 75¢ 88¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+18%)
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? Yes 52¢ 55¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026? No 51¢ 54¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election by 15%+? No 95¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Will Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition? Yes 77¢ 80¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 74¢ 76¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? Yes 43¢ 44¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
US strike on Colombia by December 31? No 78¢ 78¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Warsh say "Downside" during June Press Conference? No 59¢ 60¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 40¢ 40¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $2 +$2 +112%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $2 +$3 +126%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Brian Bjelde be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 13 $4 +$1 +18%
Will Shivon Zilis be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Will WhiteHawk Minerals' market cap be between $675M and $750M at mark Jun 10 $2 +$4 +204%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $2 +$1 +67%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid Jun 08 $2 +$4 +214%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $4 +$4 +102%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $2 +$7 +341%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $2 +$7 +326%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $2 +$1 +59%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? Jun 01 $2 +$1 +33%
Will annual inflation be 4.2% in May? Jun 01 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? May 31 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Robert Golob be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? May 31 $4 −$1 -33%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian May 31 $2 −$2 -99%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on May 30 $2 −$2 -97%
Nothing Ever Happens: March May 30 $2 +$3 +133%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el May 30 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $4 −$1 -37%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 28? May 28 $2 +$3 +164%
Will annual inflation be 4.3% in May? May 27 $2 −$2 -97%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 27 $4 +$1 +22%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 27 $4 +$1 +32%
Will Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff? May 16 $2 +$1 +28%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? May 13 $4 −$1 -35%
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.00–2.25 in April? May 12 $2 +$1 +43%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10? May 10 $4 $0 -6%
Will Plaid Cymru win the most seats in the 2026 Welsh Senedd election? May 08 $2 +$1 +33%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? May 01 $4 −$1 -32%
Will Russia capture Lyman by April 30, 2026? May 01 $2 +$1 +39%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by April 30? May 01 $2 $0 +25%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? May 01 $4 −$1 -32%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026? Apr 29 $2 +$1 +59%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on April 28? Apr 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Apr 29 $2 +$2 +91%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Apr 29 $2 +$8 +380%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? Apr 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Forhad Hussain win the 2026 London Borough of Newham mayoral elec Apr 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 26 $4 +$1 +23%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $710 on April 24? Apr 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Amanda De Ryk win the 2026 London Borough of Lewisham mayoral ele Apr 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? Apr 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Exam? Apr 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April? Apr 24 $4 −$4 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 36m
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 59m
Will Warsh say "Balance Sheet" during June Press Conference? BUY No 24¢ $1 22h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 43h
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (LOW) $157.50 Week of June 15 20 BUY Yes 27¢ $2 43h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 2d
Will Warsh say "FED" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 67¢ $2 2d
Will Warsh say "Downside" during June Press Conference? BUY No 59¢ $2 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 2d
Will Warsh say "Groupthink" or "Group Think" during June Press Confere BUY Yes 32¢ $2 3d
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 61¢ $2 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $2 3d
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 75¢ $2 4d
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026? BUY Yes 55¢ $2 4d
Will Warsh say "Asymmetric" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 5d
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 5d
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 5d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 5d
Will Warsh say "Asymmetric" during June Press Conference? BUY No 60¢ $2 5d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 6d
Will Shivon Zilis be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' BUY Yes 32¢ $2 6d
Will Brian Bjelde be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' BUY Yes 41¢ $2 6d
Will Brian Bjelde be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' BUY No 60¢ $2 6d
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? BUY No 41¢ $2 6d
Will annual inflation be 4.2% in May? BUY No 61¢ $2 16d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 16d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 16d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 30 to June 1, 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $2 16d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $2 17d
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $110.71 · official $110.75 (match) · 422 history records