Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:41:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x64f8…eec6 weather 247 markets active 1h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$605 (+1%) realized +$822 · open −$217
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate91%224W / 21L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$252per market
Trades / day14.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$420now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$49
7 days+$153
14 days+$320
30 days+$572
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$437
sports 0% −$70
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +36.4% +23.4% 93% 17% -7.5%
≤30d 137 +8.4% -1.9% 90% 14% -7.8%
≤90d 245 +4.6% -5.4% 91% 11% -8.7%
all 245 +4.6% -5.4% 91% 11% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.4% 11% -8.7%
10% -14.5% 5% -17.4%
15% -22.7% 3% -25.4%
20% -30.3% 2% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -0% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$25 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.17 per $1 lost it wins $2.17
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$420
Realized+$822
Unrealized−$217
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses224 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)245 / 247
History coverage81d
Avg bet$252
Trades / day14.7
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 245 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 22? No 100¢ 67¢ $622 $416 −$206 (-33%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 22? Yes 67¢ 16¢ $15 $4 −$11 (-76%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 21? Jun 21 $370 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on June 21 Jun 21 $598 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 21? Jun 21 $213 −$2 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 21? Jun 21 $27 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 21? Jun 21 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 20? Jun 21 $0 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 20? Jun 20 $548 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 20? Jun 20 $283 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 20? Jun 20 $105 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on June 20 Jun 20 $247 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $524 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $712 +$13 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 20? Jun 20 $4 +$4 +112%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 20? Jun 20 $56 +$25 +45%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $197 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $96 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on June 19 Jun 19 $166 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 18? Jun 18 $65 +$22 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 18? Jun 18 $29 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on June 18 Jun 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 18? Jun 18 $6 +$53 +971%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 17? Jun 17 $209 +$6 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 17? Jun 17 $276 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $106 +$12 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $598 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1,036 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $54 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? Jun 15 $400 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $846 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $114 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $46 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $8 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $118 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -55%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $390 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $71 +$52 +74%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $598 +$6 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $452 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $130 +$6 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $295 +$34 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on June 11 Jun 11 $224 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $255 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $148 +$28 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $9 −$5 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $331 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $331 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 10? Jun 10 $15 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 22? BUY Yes 67¢ $15 31m
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $84 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $61 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $60 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $417 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $4 19h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 21? SELL No 100¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $27 20h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on June 21 BUY No 100¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on June 21 BUY No 100¢ $51 21h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on June 21 BUY No 100¢ $30 21h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on June 21 BUY No 100¢ $5 21h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on June 21 BUY No 100¢ $102 21h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on June 21 BUY No 100¢ $33 21h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on June 21 BUY No 100¢ $10 21h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on June 21 BUY No 100¢ $3 21h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on June 21 BUY No 100¢ $101 21h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on June 21 BUY No 100¢ $103 21h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on June 21 BUY No 100¢ $5 21h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on June 21 BUY No 100¢ $50 21h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on June 21 BUY No 100¢ $2 21h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on June 21 BUY No 100¢ $13 21h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on June 21 BUY No 100¢ $12 21h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on June 21 BUY No 100¢ $14 21h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on June 21 BUY No 100¢ $6 21h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on June 21 BUY No 100¢ $2 21h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on June 21 BUY No 100¢ $12 21h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on June 21 BUY No 100¢ $4 21h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on June 21 BUY No 100¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C or higher on June 21 BUY No 100¢ $0 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $419.78 · official $419.78 (match) · 1393 history records