Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:50:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
64 0x64f9…6e63 crypto 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 56d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$20 (-3%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate72%36W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$16
14 days+$16
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 +3.8% -6.1% 79% 66% -6.8%
≤30d 48 -0.3% -9.8% 75% 62% -8.2%
≤90d 50 -4.3% -13.4% 72% 60% -9.9%
all 50 -4.3% -13.4% 72% 60% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 60% -9.9%
10% -21.7% 40% -18.5%
15% -29.3% 22% -26.4%
20% -36.2% 14% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$10 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

56d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses36 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)50 / 50
History coverage56d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 50 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$5 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 21 $31 +$14 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 21 $20 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 21 $20 +$6 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$12 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 21 $20 +$4 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 20 $20 +$9 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 20 $20 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 20 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 20 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 20 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 20 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 20 $0 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 20 $30 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 20 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 31 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 31 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 31 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET May 31 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET May 31 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET May 31 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET May 30 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Apr 26 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Apr 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $20 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $10 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $20 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $10 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $20 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $10 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $10 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $10 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $10 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $20 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $10 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $30 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $20 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $20 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $20 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $10 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 90 history records