Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:31:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
64 0x64fe…3586 crypto 37 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (56 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$33 (-1%) realized +$140 · open −$173
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate67%18W / 9L
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$86per market
Trades / day55.6pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$1,385now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% −$84
crypto 32% +$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (56 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +3.2% -6.6% 67% 59% -1.2%
≤30d 27 +3.2% -6.6% 67% 59% -1.2%
≤90d 27 +3.2% -6.6% 67% 59% -1.2%
all 27 +3.2% -6.6% 67% 59% -1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover55.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.6% 59% -1.2%
10% ← realistic here -15.6% 37% -10.6%
15% -23.7% 33% -19.3%
20% -31.2% 15% -27.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 41% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$18 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.82 per $1 lost it wins $1.82
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$1,385
Realized+$140
Unrealized−$173
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses18 / 9
Open positions10
Markets (closed)27 / 37
History coverage2d
Avg bet$86
Trades / day55.6
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $484 $450 −$33 (-7%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $310 $223 −$87 (-28%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $182 $181 −$1 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $150 $150 −$0 (-0%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $134 $117 −$17 (-13%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $90 $87 −$3 (-3%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $95 $79 −$16 (-16%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $72 $64 −$8 (-11%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $32 $23 −$9 (-28%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Up 47¢ 50¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$23 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 22 $77 +$12 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 22 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 22 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 22 $102 +$11 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 22 $26 +$13 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 21 $78 +$15 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 21 $52 −$7 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$13 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 21 $31 +$19 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 21 $31 +$13 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 21 $51 +$21 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 21 $28 +$9 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 21 $12 −$2 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 21 $77 +$14 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 21 $107 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$13 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 21 $25 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$5 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $156 +$102 +65%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $180 −$5 -3%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $134 −$7 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $48 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Down 86¢ $32 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $26 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $57 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $51 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $48 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $51 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $35 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $30 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $52 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $52 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $39 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $27 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $26 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $66 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $24 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $26 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $21 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $38 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $50 46m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,384.69 · official $1,384.69 (match) · 128 history records