Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T10:18:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
65 0x6507…7d79 tech 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy tech specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$143 (+7%) realized +$96 · open +$47
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate70%14W / 6L
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$775now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$34
14 days−$137
30 days+$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 75% +$98
economics 16% −$1
other 4% +$12
world 3% −$2
politics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +13.6% +2.8% 100% 67% +2.5%
≤30d 14 +5.7% -4.4% 71% 57% -5.2%
≤90d 20 +12.1% +1.4% 70% 55% -4.1%
all 20 +12.1% +1.4% 70% 55% -4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.4% 55% -4.1%
10% -8.3% 35% -13.2%
15% -17.1% 25% -21.6%
20% -25.3% 15% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +23% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$35 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$775
Realized+$96
Unrealized+$47
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses14 / 6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)20 / 22
History coverage90d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? No 88¢ 98¢ $420 $468 +$48 (+11%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $308 $307 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.45T by June 30? Jun 27 $81 +$17 +21%
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 23 $90 +$5 +5%
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? Jun 22 $84 +$12 +15%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Jun 19 $13 −$10 -76%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 18 $89 +$7 +8%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 16 $168 −$167 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $141 +$150 +107%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $205 +$52 +26%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.8T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 12 $64 −$5 -8%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 07 $7 +$1 +17%
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by May 31? Jun 07 $3 +$3 +100%
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by May 31? Jun 07 $14 +$6 +43%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 02 $8 +$2 +23%
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31? May 30 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by April 30? Apr 29 $11 +$2 +21%
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by April 30? Apr 28 $11 +$12 +102%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Apr 11 $4 $0 -4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Apr 11 $8 $0 -1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 04 $5 $0 +5%
US/Israel strike Yemen by March 31? Apr 02 $4 +$1 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 18¢ $113 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 18¢ $188 1h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 18¢ $19 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.45T by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $83 9h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.45T by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $15 17h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $216 18h
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $95 3d
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $96 4d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 8d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $95 8d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $96 9d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 44¢ $8 9d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 44¢ $6 9d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $39 11d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $250 11d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? SELL No $0 11d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY No 44¢ $66 11d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY No 44¢ $22 11d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $50 11d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY No 67¢ $11 12d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY No 67¢ $3 12d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.45T by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $65 13d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $8 13d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $74 13d
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $90 13d
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $84 13d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY No 66¢ $30 13d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY No 66¢ $37 13d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.45T by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $16 13d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $42 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $774.92 · official $774.92 (match) · 71 history records