Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:41:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x650a…3620 other 271 markets active 2h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$73 (-0%) realized −$73 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%17W / 254L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$235per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$16
14 days−$28
30 days−$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$43
sports 25% −$23
politics 9% −$7
culture 7% −$8
economics 6% −$7
crypto 5% −$5
world 3% +$8
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 71 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 182 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 271 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$73
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses17 / 254
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)271 / 271
History coverage145d
Avg bet$235
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 271 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $201 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $700 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $837 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $508 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $65 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $338 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $724 −$1 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 18 $543 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $429 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $66 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $311 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $173 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $365 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $864 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $66 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $425 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $235 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $226 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $400 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $237 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $226 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $583 −$2 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $340 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $141 $0 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 13 $252 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 13 $367 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $381 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $448 −$1 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $526 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $459 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $71 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $839 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 10 $314 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $500 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $828 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $438 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $495 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 08 $484 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $551 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $385 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $421 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $264 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $263 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $73 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $250 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $74 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $598 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 04 $159 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $584 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $64 1h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $65 3h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $65 7h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $65 9h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $65 16h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $65 17h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $65 23h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $65 24h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $24 26h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $24 27h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $65 29h
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $65 30h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $65 30h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $65 34h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $65 35h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $65 37h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $65 38h
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $65 40h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $65 41h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $66 43h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $66 2d
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $66 2d
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $66 2d
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $66 2d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $66 2d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $66 2d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $66 2d
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $66 2d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $66 3d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $66 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1560 history records