Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:47:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x650f…a817 world 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 470d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate55%17W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$6
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 69% −$7
other 14% −$1
crypto 5% $0
finance 4% −$1
weather 3% $0
economics 2% $0
sports 2% $0
politics 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -1.4% -10.8% 17% 0% -10.8%
≤30d 13 -1.3% -10.7% 15% 0% -10.5%
≤90d 13 -1.3% -10.7% 15% 0% -10.5%
all 31 +0.0% -9.5% 55% 0% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -10.2%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.8%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.7%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.23 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

470d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses17 / 14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage470d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $43 $43 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $135 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $39 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $96 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $93 −$4 -5%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $43 −$1 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $29 −$1 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $50 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $62 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $50 $0 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $50 $0 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $1 $0 -7%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $6 $0 +3%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 18 $2 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Dec 11 $2 $0 +8%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 11 $1 $0 +1%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Jun 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? Jun 06 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2000 in April? May 05 $2 $0 +5%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 15 $14 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $100 by March? Apr 02 $14 $0 +1%
Suchir Balaji foul play determined before April? Mar 27 $13 $0 +0%
Will CDU/CSU, SPD, and Greens form the next German Government? Mar 26 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 46°F or below on March 24? Mar 25 $13 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $13 $0 +3%
Will 'Novocaine' gross between 7-9m on opening weekend? Mar 16 $13 −$1 -8%
China wins the most gold medals in 2025 Special Olympics? Mar 16 $14 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $89000 and $91000 on Mar 14? Mar 13 $14 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 42-43°F on March 11? Mar 12 $14 $0 +1%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Mar 10 $14 $0 +1%
Will Trump's 2025 joint address get >46m viewers? Mar 07 $13 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $43 1h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $29 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $14 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $43 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $39 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $39 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $19 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 22¢ $19 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 61¢ $35 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 61¢ $4 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 68¢ $29 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 68¢ $14 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 82¢ $29 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 82¢ $29 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 95¢ $24 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 95¢ $17 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $41 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $33 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $10 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $43 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $48 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $48 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 3¢ $1 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 5¢ $2 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $49 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $49 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.15 · official $43.15 (match) · 95 history records