Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:00:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x6510…0d98 crypto 860 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 6d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (437 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$844 (+5%) realized +$844 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate34%401W / 795L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day437.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (437 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-24.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1196 -16.8% -24.7% 34% 2% -21.8%
≤30d 1196 -16.8% -24.7% 34% 2% -21.8%
≤90d 1196 -16.8% -24.7% 34% 2% -21.8%
all 1196 -16.8% -24.7% 34% 2% -21.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover437.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.7% 2% -21.8%
10% ← realistic here -31.9% 2% -29.3%
15% -38.5% 2% -36.1%
20% -44.5% 2% -42.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$844
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses401 / 795
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1196 / 860
History coverage6d ⚠
Avg bet$19
Trades / day437.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1196 Trades
no open positions (401 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $0 +$2 +2560%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $79 −$79 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -869%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $0 −$1 -171%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -225%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -864%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$4 -668%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $41 −$43 -107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 +310%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 +919%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $20 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $0 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $19 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $0 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $19 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $0 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $0 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $19 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $18 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $11 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $7 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $0 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records