Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:38:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
65 0x6513…7f56 sports 34 markets active 3d ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$685 (-8%) realized −$727 · open +$42
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate42%14W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$263per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$107est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$377now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$346
14 days−$358
30 days−$884
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% −$438
other 29% −$342
crypto 22% −$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -6.5% -15.4% 43% 36% -20.5%
≤30d 33 -11.5% -19.9% 42% 33% -19.1%
≤90d 33 -11.5% -19.9% 42% 33% -19.1%
all 33 -11.5% -19.9% 42% 33% -19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.9% 33% -19.1%
10% -27.6% 27% -26.8%
15% -34.6% 12% -33.9%
20% -41.0% 6% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 62% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$83 vs −$107 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$377
Realized−$727
Unrealized+$42
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses14 / 19
Est. fees paid−$107
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage22d
Avg bet$263
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $335 $377 +$42 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $402 −$401 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $377 +$25 +6%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $410 +$54 +13%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $168 −$3 -2%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $415 −$173 -42%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $201 +$55 +27%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $286 −$9 -3%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $55 −$4 -7%
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $174 −$4 -2%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $91 +$21 +24%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $87 +$38 +43%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $71 −$17 -24%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $175 +$73 +42%
Will Tunisia win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $176 −$1 -1%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $122 −$120 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $102 +$108 +106%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 03 $377 −$14 -4%
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $1,202 −$55 -4%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 29 $435 −$50 -12%
LoL: BOMBA Team vs Orbit Anonymo (BO5) - Rift Legends Playoffs May 27 $224 +$21 +10%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO5) - Prime League May 26 $206 +$60 +29%
LoL: Estral Esports vs paiN Gaming Academy (BO5) - Circuito Desafiante May 26 $105 −$104 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO3) - LCK Ch May 26 $22 −$3 -13%
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 2 Winne May 26 $29 +$2 +6%
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Winne May 26 $71 −$16 -22%
LoL: Gen.G Global Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challe May 26 $177 +$29 +16%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea May 26 $173 +$46 +26%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 3 Winner May 26 $14 −$14 -98%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 25 $71 −$71 -99%
Counter-Strike: Hashiras vs NEW VISION (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers May 25 $107 −$14 -13%
Counter-Strike: Hashiras vs NEW VISION - Map 2 Winner May 25 $84 +$23 +28%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 25 $1,011 +$605 +60%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 24 $987 −$971 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $402 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $377 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 100¢ $377 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 85¢ $322 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 83¢ $83 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 94¢ $239 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $88 4d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 84¢ $88 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $160 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 82¢ $82 4d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 84¢ $88 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 83¢ $168 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $168 4d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 100¢ $256 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $245 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 75¢ $186 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 26¢ $32 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 47¢ $51 5d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 79¢ $101 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 49¢ $55 5d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 78¢ $201 5d
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 85¢ $170 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $58 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? SELL No 100¢ $124 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 88¢ $53 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 96¢ $54 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 69¢ $87 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 79¢ $91 5d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $71 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $175 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $377.12 · official $377.12 (match) · 121 history records